*[Enwl-inf] FYI: Крах сложных обществ

[enwl]

Великолепное исследование Тейнтера “Крах сложных обществ” казалось далеким 
от моих основных вопросов во время всех этих размышлений о том, как мои 
собственные исследования могут быть связаны с основными проблемами, стоящими 
перед нами сегодня. Но теперь один из ученых, написавших книгу "Пределы 
роста", Уго Барди, стал соавтором исследования, в котором заново 
проанализированы различные сценарии, включая сценарий Тейнтера, касающиеся 
краха цивилизации. Он и его коллеги пришли к выводу, что модель Тейнтера 
является наиболее правдоподобной – затраты на поддержание расширяющейся 
империи возрастают до тех пор, пока не рухнет все финансовое, а затем 
политическое и экономическое институциональное ядро империи.


“...Предполагается, что изучаемые здесь модели не описывают конкретные 
случаи распада человеческих обществ, скорее, они рассматриваются как 
упрощенная игровая площадка для изучения влияния некоторых параметров на 
траекторию сложных систем, задуманных как диссипативные структуры, 
основанные на ограниченных или медленно возобновляемых ресурсах. Модели 
основаны на простой концепции: трофической цепи. Если мы предположим, что 
имеющиеся природные ресурсы невозобновляемы, как это имеет место в случае с 
минеральными ресурсами (например золото и серебро для Римской империи и 
ископаемое топливо для современной глобальной империи), исчезновение 
трофических структур, эксплуатирующих ресурсы, неизбежно – если только не 
будут найдены новые ресурсы. То же самое верно и для тех ресурсов, которые 
медленно возобновляются по сравнению со скоростью эксплуатации. Модели 
показывают нам, как происходит растрата природных ресурсов путем 
постепенного заполнения и опустошения запасов при более низком 
термодинамическом потенциале – каждый шаг подразумевает потерю полезной 
потенциальной энергии, которая исчезает в виде загрязнения, например, 
низкотемпературного тепла. ....Это явление создает “колоколообразные” кривые 
для заполнения/опорожнения запасов. Эти кривые также могут принимать “форму 
Сенеки”, когда спад происходит быстрее, чем рост. По мере того, как это 
явление продолжается, акции взаимодействуют друг с другом. Временная 
задержка при заполнении/опорожнении запасов формирует траекторию, по которой 
запасы перемещаются в фазовом пространстве вдоль кривой гистерезиса. Система 
непрерывно эволюционирует необратимым образом и никогда не сможет вернуться 
к более раннему состоянию, если только не предполагается, что ресурсы 
являются возобновляемыми, и в этом случае система вращается вокруг 
аттрактора в фазовом пространстве. Другими словами, простое сокращение 
численности “бюрократии” не вернет систему в состояние, в котором она 
находилась во время цикла роста, что, по-видимому, соответствует текущей 
ситуации.В целом, до тех пор, пока общество эксплуатирует ресурсы в условиях 
неограниченной обратной связи, как это происходит, когда оно пытается 
максимизировать доходность, коллапс чрезмерной эксплуатации неизбежен, даже 
несмотря на то, что ресурсы теоретически возобновляемы. Только разумное 
управление, способное планировать будущее, может избежать этой участи. Такой 
контроль не моделировался в настоящем исследовании, но исторические записи 
говорят нам, что он редко – если вообще когда–либо - использовался в 
человеческих обществах в истории…
 https://www.scribd.com/document/391436603/Toward-a-General-Theory-of-Societal-Collapse-A-Biophysical-Examination-of-Tainter-s-Model-of-the-Diminishing-Returns-of-Complexity-Bardi-2018?fbclid=IwAR1_-3KH2aImRHHh-y3TSWRE5JRElDTwpfF5v7JdNAHtWLDvsyKZQ1rKvRI#downloadBest regards,Bulat K. YESSEKINпн, 8 мая 2023 г. в 00:03, Helga Vierich <hvierich на gmail.com>:  Tainter’s magnificent study “The Collapse of Complex Societies” seemed farfrom my main enquiries during all this mulling I have been doing, about theway my own research can tie in with the major issues before us today. Butnow, one of scientists who has written on the Limits to Growth, Ugo Bardi,has co-authored a study that re-analysed the various scenarios, includingTainter’s, about civilizational collapse. He and his colleagues haveconcluded that Tainter’s model is the most plausible – the costs ofmaintaining an expanding empire escalate until the whole financial, and thenthe political and economic institutional heart of the empire falls.  “…The models studied here are not supposed to describe specific cases ofthe collapse of human societies, rather, they are thought of as a simplifiedplayground to examine the effect of some parameters on the trajectory ofcomplex systems intended as dissipative structures based on finite or slowlyrenewable resources. The models are based on a simple concept: that of thetrophic chain. If we assume that the natural resources available arenon-renewable, as they are in the case of mineral resources (e.g. gold andsilver for the Roman Empire and fossil fuels for the modern global empire),the disappearance of the trophic structures exploiting the resources isunavoidable – unless new resources can be found. The same is true for thoseresources which are slow to renew in comparison to the rate of exploitation.The models tell us how the dissipation of the natural resources goes by theprogressive filling and emptying of the stocks at lower thermodynamicpotential – every step implying a loss of exploitable potential energy whichdisappears in the form of pollution, e.g. low temperature heat. ….Thisphenomenon generates “bell-shaped” curves for the filling/emptying of thestocks. These curves can also take the “Seneca shape” when the decline isfaster than the growth. As this phenomenon goes on, the stocks interact witheach other. The time delay in the filling/emptying of the stocks generates atrajectory where stocks move in the phase space along a hysteresis curve.The system continuously evolves in an irreversible manner and it can neverreturn to an earlier condition, unless the resources are assumed to berenewable and, in this case, the system circles around an attractor inphase-space. In other words, simply reducing the size of the “Bureaucracy”stock will not return the system to a condition in which it was during thegrowing cycle, an observation which seems to correspond to the currentsituation.Overall, as long as a society exploits resources in a condition ofunbridled feedback, as it happens when it tries to maximize yields, then theoverexploitation collapse is unavoidable even though the resources aretheoretically renewable. Only an intelligent control able to plan for thefuture can avoid this destiny. Such a control was not modelled in thepresent study, but the records of history tell us that it is rarely – ifever – utilized in human societies in history…”https://www.scribd.com/document/391436603/Toward-a-General-Theory-of-Societal-Collapse-A-Biophysical-Examination-of-Tainter-s-Model-of-the-Diminishing-Returns-of-Complexity-Bardi-2018?fbclid=IwAR1_-3KH2aImRHHh-y3TSWRE5JRElDTwpfF5v7JdNAHtWLDvsyKZQ1rKvRI#download  Conclusion: it is when any community loses control of their commons, andnegative trophic cascades begin, that the feedback into a tragedy of thecommons, begins. At this point in the history of humanity, the degree ofinequality has never been greater. A handful of billionaires has more wealthand property than three or four billions of people on the planet. They seemto act as though this gives them, or the giant corporations that enrichthem, more power over the use of the commons, than any local community. Ithink that this signals loss of control, on the part of the globalcommunity, of the commons of this world, and that this is how the collapsethe civilization, at the centre of the exploitative economy, begins.  On Sun, May 7, 2023 at 11:59 AM Helga Vierich <hvierich на gmail.com> wrote:    In the last few days I have been reading accounts of the meeting ofElders gathering festival, and this account is from a Bushman elder whoattended:    “On the morning of my travel to Panama, some hours before boarding theplane, I went for my daily walk close to our reservation. I was walkingslowly as usual, and after passing some bushes, my eyes met those of anadult female lion, just sitting by the bushes, looking at me. I paused for amoment, nodded my head respectfully, and went on my way. We the San have hada timeless mutual understanding and ancient agreement with the predators ofSouthern Africa to never harm each other…    “We have no private property, and the land belongs to every human,animal and plant which live on it. Conflict hardly ever arises within oursociety, due to the original spirit living in everyone, who are educated inthe ways of sharing, giving, of peace, and love. The world is sick, and wecan help to heal it with the message that we bring: love each other, lovethe Earth, love life, and treat all with respect.”    Can we try this, please?    On Sun, May 7, 2023 at 11:37 AM Thorsten Daubenfeld<thorsten.daubenfeld на hs-fresenius.de> wrote:      Dear Anastassia,      Thanks for this thought-provoking idea! I guess it is difficult toquantify the Seneca effect. But somewhat between 5 – 20 per cent of thewhole life time of the system (whatever “life time” means in this context)sounds quite plausible.      Quick analogies running through my mind from history and economy:      Rise and fall of the British Empire (about 1580 – 2000), the “fall”(decolonization) took about 50 years, so about 10% of the whole “life time”        a.. Nazi Germany lasted from 1933-1945, the final downfall startedabout 1942 (battle of El Alamein, Stalingrad, US enters the war,…), whichmakes up for 25% of the whole “life time”        b.. The German airline Air Berlin lasted from 1978-2017, the timebetween 2013-2017 being the “collapse time”, so about 10% of the whole lifetime        c.. The German chemical industry giant Hoechst AG lasted from1863-2000 (roughly), the downfall lasted only about 5 years, less than 5% ofthe overall life time      However, we should ask what “collapse of life” means in our context.In all the above examples (and after the fall of the Roman Empire) therewere other complex adaptive systems rising from the ashes of the larger andmore complex system, spurring new development.      So it is maybe not life itself that is about to collapse, but ratherthe more complex life with larger animals, leaving the scene for moresimpler forms of life on our planet that will take over? And if life itselfis collapsing – who else will take over?      Maybe the authors on this website were right when they talked aboutthe fact that we are nearly “half way through” the time of (large) animalsand plants on this planet:https://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0301/15earthclock/      So where does this leave us?      In the end, we are going to die. But this, so far from discouraging,only adds to the joy and glory of holobiont science (to modify a famousquote by W. Churchill).      Looking forward to your thoughts about all this, fellow holobionts!      Cheers,      Thorsten      Von: theproudholobionts на googlegroups.com<theproudholobionts на googlegroups.com> Im Auftrag von Anastassia Makarieva      Gesendet: Sonntag, 7. Mai 2023 19:12      Betreff: Re: [Holobionts] Trophic Rewilding      While it cannot be questioned that certain animals play importantfunctions in the ecosystem, on a bigger scale the role of large animalsappears unclear. The main argument against their efficiency is their smallsurface-to-volume ratio, which indicates that they are primarily concerned(in the biophysical sense) about maintaining their own internal milieu andsimply cannot spend any significant resources on the regulation of theexternal environment. Unlike the smallest organisms, bacteria and fungi,with their huge surface-to-volume ratios.      In this context, I recently thought of the following analogy. In hisSeneca Effect: why growth is slow but collapse is rapid, Ugo considered asthe Mother of all collapses, the decline of Rome. This decline took about200-300 years or about one fourth -- one fifth of the total existence of theconsidered system/process (Rome) (approx. one thousand years).      Now if we look at life, the first multicellular animals seem to haveappeared several hundred million years ago, which is approximately the sameproportion (about one fifth) of total life's existence. Was it really thebeginning of life's collapse? (which is not a linear process of course, withmany ups and downs on a finer temporal scale?)      Just thoughts.      Anastassia      вт, 4 апр. 2023 г. в 20:17, Ugo Bardi <prudentlobster на gmail.com>:        You may have already seen this paper just appeared on "Nature."        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01631-6.epdf        It is an assessment of the role of the trophic chains on climate. Ithas been described as a "landmark paper" and under several respects it is.It is part of a general movement for rewilding, and there is even a "GlobalRewilding Alliance at        https://globalrewilding.earth/        Overall, the concept is good and welcome, because it provides analternative to the multiple bizarre ideas that have been proposed as"solutions" for the climate change problem, including cutting NorthernForests to increase Earth's albedo.        On the other hand, it is still a subject in its infancy. The authorshaven't realized that there is not just carbon sequestration at play in thisgame, and they miss the dynamic effects of forests on the hydrological cycle(the kind of effects studied by Gorshkov and Makarieva). But I think that itcould be possible to merge these concept in a single one. In both case, theidea is to restore the ecosystem to its maximum trophic potential.        A deeper problem lies in understanding why exactly trophic chainshave the effects claimed in the paper. If they do. Among other things, the"Trophic Rewilding" idea is criticized by Anastassia Makarieva who maintainsthat large animals damage the ecosystem, whereas the proponents say it isthe opposite. Complicated story -- I confess that I am a little lost in it.What I can see is that these trophic chains are holobionts in the sense thatthey operate on the win-win principle; every element of the chain benefitsfrom the other elements.        In any case there is something deep, here, which I don't think hasbeen explained in the details -- at least as far as I know. The highercomplexity of long and networked trophic chain must be appearing in form ofdecreasing entropy of the system in terms of the Kullback-Leiber divergence,that is the difference in entropy between networked and less-networkedsystems. I think it is related to Tononi's Integrated Information Theory,but Tononi's ideas are expressed in terms of discrete states, whereasholobionts work in terms of continuous energy levels. It is a complicatedstory, but maybe someone in the list knows more than me in this field?-- *******************************Ugo BardiOnward, FellowHolobionts!https://theproudholobionts.blogspot.comВы получили это сообщение,поскольку подписаны на группу "seu-international".From: Bulat YessekinSent: Monday, May 08, 2023 7:50 AMSubject: Крах сложных обществ
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