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<DIV dir=ltr>Великолепное исследование Тейнтера “Крах сложных обществ” казалось
далеким от моих основных вопросов во время всех этих размышлений о том, как мои
собственные исследования могут быть связаны с основными проблемами, стоящими
перед нами сегодня. Но теперь один из ученых, написавших книгу "Пределы роста",
Уго Барди, стал соавтором исследования, в котором заново проанализированы
различные сценарии, включая сценарий Тейнтера, касающиеся краха цивилизации. Он
и его коллеги пришли к выводу, что модель Тейнтера является наиболее
правдоподобной – затраты на поддержание расширяющейся империи возрастают до тех
пор, пока не рухнет все финансовое, а затем политическое и экономическое
институциональное ядро империи.<BR><BR>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: georgia,serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(34,34,34)">“...Предполагается,
что изучаемые здесь модели не описывают конкретные случаи распада человеческих
обществ, скорее, они рассматриваются как упрощенная игровая площадка для
изучения влияния некоторых параметров на траекторию сложных систем, задуманных
как диссипативные структуры, основанные на ограниченных или медленно
возобновляемых ресурсах. Модели основаны на простой концепции: трофической цепи.
Если мы предположим, что имеющиеся природные ресурсы невозобновляемы, как это
имеет место в случае с минеральными ресурсами (например золото и серебро для
Римской империи и ископаемое топливо для современной глобальной империи),
исчезновение трофических структур, эксплуатирующих ресурсы, неизбежно – если
только не будут найдены новые ресурсы. То же самое верно и для тех ресурсов,
которые медленно возобновляются по сравнению со скоростью эксплуатации. Модели
показывают нам, как происходит растрата природных ресурсов путем постепенного
заполнения и опустошения запасов при более низком термодинамическом потенциале –
каждый шаг подразумевает потерю полезной потенциальной энергии, которая исчезает
в виде загрязнения, например, низкотемпературного тепла. ....Это явление создает
“колоколообразные” кривые для заполнения/опорожнения запасов. Эти кривые также
могут принимать “форму Сенеки”, когда спад происходит быстрее, чем рост. По мере
того, как это явление продолжается, акции взаимодействуют друг с другом.
Временная задержка при заполнении/опорожнении запасов формирует траекторию, по
которой запасы перемещаются в фазовом пространстве вдоль кривой гистерезиса.
Система непрерывно эволюционирует необратимым образом и никогда не сможет
вернуться к более раннему состоянию, если только не предполагается, что ресурсы
являются возобновляемыми, и в этом случае система вращается вокруг аттрактора в
фазовом пространстве. Другими словами, простое сокращение численности
“бюрократии” не вернет систему в состояние, в котором она находилась во время
цикла роста, что, по-видимому, соответствует текущей ситуации.В целом, до тех
пор, пока общество эксплуатирует ресурсы в условиях неограниченной обратной
связи, как это происходит, когда оно пытается максимизировать доходность,
коллапс чрезмерной эксплуатации неизбежен, даже несмотря на то, что ресурсы
теоретически возобновляемы. Только разумное управление, способное планировать
будущее, может избежать этой участи. Такой контроль не моделировался в настоящем
исследовании, но исторические записи говорят нам, что он редко – если вообще
когда–либо - использовался в человеческих обществах в истории…</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: georgia,serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default><SPAN
style="FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"> </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(34,34,34)"><A
href="https://www.scribd.com/document/391436603/Toward-a-General-Theory-of-Societal-Collapse-A-Biophysical-Examination-of-Tainter-s-Model-of-the-Diminishing-Returns-of-Complexity-Bardi-2018?fbclid=IwAR1_-3KH2aImRHHh-y3TSWRE5JRElDTwpfF5v7JdNAHtWLDvsyKZQ1rKvRI#download"
target=_blank>https://www.scribd.com/document/391436603/Toward-a-General-Theory-of-Societal-Collapse-A-Biophysical-Examination-of-Tainter-s-Model-of-the-Diminishing-Returns-of-Complexity-Bardi-2018?fbclid=IwAR1_-3KH2aImRHHh-y3TSWRE5JRElDTwpfF5v7JdNAHtWLDvsyKZQ1rKvRI#download</A></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: georgia,serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(34,34,34)">Best
regards,</SPAN><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_signature>
<DIV dir=ltr>
<DIV>Bulat K. YESSEKIN</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><BR></DIV><BR>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>пн, 8 мая 2023 г. в 00:03, Helga Vierich <<A
href="mailto:hvierich@gmail.com">hvierich@gmail.com</A>>:<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: rgb(204,204,204) 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex"
class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr><SPAN
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(229,221,203); FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px">Tainter’s
magnificent study “The Collapse of Complex Societies” seemed far from my main
enquiries during all this mulling I have been doing, about the way my own
research can tie in with the major issues before us today. But now, one of
scientists who has written on the Limits to Growth, Ugo Bardi, has co-authored
a study that re-analysed the various scenarios, including Tainter’s, about
civilizational collapse. He and his colleagues have concluded that Tainter’s
model is the most plausible – the costs of maintaining an expanding empire
escalate until the whole financial, and then the political and economic
institutional heart of the empire falls.</SPAN><BR
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"><BR
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"><SPAN
style="FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px">“…The
models studied here are not supposed to describe specific cases of the
collapse of human societies, rather, they are thought of as a simplified
playground to examine the effect of some parameters on the trajectory of
complex systems intended as dissipative structures based on finite or slowly
renewable resources. The models are based on a simple concept: that of the
trophic chain. If we assume that the natural resources available are
non-renewable, as they are in the case of mineral resources (e.g. gold and
silver for the Roman Empire and fossil fuels for the modern global empire),
the disappearance of the trophic structures exploiting the resources is
unavoidable – unless new resources can be found. The same is true for those
resources which are slow to renew in comparison to the rate of exploitation.
The models tell us how the dissipation of the natural resources goes by the
progressive filling and emptying of the stocks at lower thermodynamic
potential – every step implying a loss of exploitable potential energy which
disappears in the form of pollution, e.g. low temperature heat. ….This
phenomenon generates “bell-shaped” curves for the filling/emptying of the
stocks. These curves can also take the “Seneca shape” when the decline is
faster than the growth. As this phenomenon goes on, the stocks interact with
each other. The time delay in the filling/emptying of the stocks generates a
trajectory where stocks move in the phase space along a hysteresis curve. The
system continuously evolves in an irreversible manner and it can never return
to an earlier condition, unless the resources are assumed to be renewable and,
in this case, the system circles around an attractor in phase-space. In other
words, simply reducing the size of the “Bureaucracy” stock will not return the
system to a condition in which it was during the growing cycle, an observation
which seems to correspond to the current situation.Overall, as long as a
society exploits resources in a condition of unbridled feedback, as it happens
when it tries to maximize yields, then the overexploitation collapse is
unavoidable even though the resources are theoretically renewable. Only an
intelligent control able to plan for the future can avoid this destiny. Such a
control was not modelled in the present study, but the records of history tell
us that it is rarely – if ever – utilized in human societies in
history…”<SPAN> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-STYLE: italic"><A
href="https://www.scribd.com/document/391436603/Toward-a-General-Theory-of-Societal-Collapse-A-Biophysical-Examination-of-Tainter-s-Model-of-the-Diminishing-Returns-of-Complexity-Bardi-2018?fbclid=IwAR1_-3KH2aImRHHh-y3TSWRE5JRElDTwpfF5v7JdNAHtWLDvsyKZQ1rKvRI#download"
target=_blank>https://www.scribd.com/document/391436603/Toward-a-General-Theory-of-Societal-Collapse-A-Biophysical-Examination-of-Tainter-s-Model-of-the-Diminishing-Returns-of-Complexity-Bardi-2018?fbclid=IwAR1_-3KH2aImRHHh-y3TSWRE5JRElDTwpfF5v7JdNAHtWLDvsyKZQ1rKvRI#download</A></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"><BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(229,221,203); FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px">Conclusion:
it is when any community loses control of their commons, and negative trophic
cascades begin, that the feedback into a tragedy of the commons, begins. At
this point in the history of humanity, the degree of inequality has never been
greater. A handful of billionaires has more wealth and property than three or
four billions of people on the planet. They seem to act as though this gives
them, or the giant corporations that enrich them, more power over the use of
the commons, than any local community. I think that this signals loss of
control, on the part of the global community, of the commons of this world,
and that this is how the collapse the civilization, at the centre of the
exploitative economy, begins.</SPAN><BR
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"></DIV><BR>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>On Sun, May 7, 2023 at 11:59 AM Helga Vierich
<<A href="mailto:hvierich@gmail.com"
target=_blank>hvierich@gmail.com</A>> wrote:<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: rgb(204,204,204) 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex"
class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr>
<P
style="MARGIN: 0.8em 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"><STRONG>In
the last few days I have been reading accounts of the meeting of Elders
gathering festival, and<A
href="https://thisisafrica.me/arts-and-culture/voices-from-the-elders-a-report-from-tribal-gathering/"
target=_blank><SPAN> </SPAN><FONT
color=#6636cc><SPAN>this account</SPAN></FONT></A><SPAN> </SPAN>is
from a Bushman elder who attended:</STRONG></P>
<P
style="MARGIN: 0.8em 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"><SPAN
style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">“<SPAN style="FONT-STYLE: italic">On the morning
of my travel to Panama, some hours before boarding the plane, I went for my
daily walk close to our reservation. I was walking slowly as usual, and
after passing some bushes, my eyes met those of an adult female lion, just
sitting by the bushes, looking at me. I paused for a moment, nodded my head
respectfully, and went on my way. We the San have had a timeless mutual
understanding and ancient agreement with the predators of Southern Africa to
never harm each other…</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN: 0.8em 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px"><SPAN><SPAN
style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)"><SPAN style="FONT-STYLE: italic">“We have no
private property, and the land belongs to every human, animal and plant
which live on it. Conflict hardly ever arises within our society, due to the
original spirit living in everyone, who are educated in the ways of sharing,
giving, of peace, and love. The world is sick, and we can help to heal it
with the message that we bring: love each other, love the Earth, love life,
and treat all with respect.”</SPAN> </SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN: 0.8em 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Merriweather Sans',sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 12px">Can
we try this, please?</P></DIV><BR>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>On Sun, May 7, 2023 at 11:37 AM Thorsten
Daubenfeld <<A href="mailto:thorsten.daubenfeld@hs-fresenius.de"
target=_blank>thorsten.daubenfeld@hs-fresenius.de</A>> wrote:<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: rgb(204,204,204) 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex"
class=gmail_quote>
<DIV>
<DIV style="overflow-wrap: break-word" lang=DE>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN>Dear Anastassia,<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>Thanks for this thought-provoking
idea! I guess it is difficult to quantify the Seneca effect. But somewhat
between 5 – 20 per cent of the whole life time of the system (whatever
“life time” means in this context) sounds quite
plausible.<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>Quick analogies running through my
mind from history and economy:<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>Rise and fall of the British Empire
(about 1580 – 2000), the “fall” (decolonization) took about 50 years, so
about 10% of the whole “life time”<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<UL style="MARGIN-TOP: 0cm" type=disc>
<LI style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>Nazi Germany lasted from
1933-1945, the final downfall started about 1942 (battle of El Alamein,
Stalingrad, US enters the war,…), which makes up for 25% of the whole
“life time”<U></U><U></U></SPAN>
<LI style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>The German airline Air
Berlin lasted from 1978-2017, the time between 2013-2017 being the
“collapse time”, so about 10% of the whole life
time<U></U><U></U></SPAN>
<LI style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US>The German chemical
industry giant Hoechst AG lasted from 1863-2000 (roughly), the downfall
lasted only about 5 years, less than 5% of the overall life
time<U></U><U></U></SPAN></LI></UL>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>However, we should ask what “collapse
of life” means in our context. In all the above examples (and after the
fall of the Roman Empire) there were other complex adaptive systems rising
from the ashes of the larger and more complex system, spurring new
development. <U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>So it is maybe not life itself that is
about to collapse, but rather the more complex life with larger animals,
leaving the scene for more simpler forms of life on our planet that will
take over? And if life itself is collapsing – who else will take
over?<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>Maybe the authors on this website were
right when they talked about the fact that we are nearly “half way
through” the time of (large) animals and plants on this planet: <A
href="https://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0301/15earthclock/"
target=_blank>https://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0301/15earthclock/</A><U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><U></U><U></U></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><IMG
style="WIDTH: 4.15in; HEIGHT: 3.241in"
id=m_8992916865113972144m_-6157444326966465298m_2014545508974692705Grafik_x0020_1
border=0 src="cid:DDCCA439EA4D45B6976A518065A9292B@evol.sp.ru" width=398
height=311></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><U></U><U></U></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>So where does this leave
us?<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US><U></U><U></U></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>In the end, we are going to die. But
this, so far from discouraging, only adds to the joy and glory of
holobiont science (to modify a famous quote by W.
Churchill).<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>Looking forward to your thoughts about
all this, fellow holobionts!<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>Cheers,<U></U><U></U></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN lang=EN-US>Thorsten</SPAN></P>
<DIV
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<P class=MsoNormal><B>Von:</B> <A
href="mailto:theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com"
target=_blank>theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com</A> <<A
href="mailto:theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com"
target=_blank>theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com</A>> <B>Im Auftrag
von </B>Anastassia Makarieva<BR><B>Gesendet:</B> Sonntag, 7. Mai 2023
19:12<BR><B>Betreff:</B> Re: [Holobionts] Trophic
Rewilding<U></U><U></U></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal>While it cannot be questioned that certain animals play
important functions in the ecosystem, on a bigger scale the role of large
animals appears unclear. The main argument against their efficiency is
their small surface-to-volume ratio, which indicates that they are
primarily concerned (in the biophysical sense) about maintaining their own
internal milieu and simply cannot spend any significant resources on the
regulation of the external environment. Unlike the smallest organisms,
bacteria and fungi, with their huge surface-to-volume
ratios.<U></U><U></U></P>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal>In this context, I recently thought of the following
analogy. In his Seneca Effect: why growth is slow but collapse is rapid,
Ugo considered as the Mother of all collapses, the decline of Rome. This
decline took about 200-300 years or about one fourth -- one fifth of the
total existence of the considered system/process (Rome) (approx. one
thousand years).<U></U><U></U></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal>Now if we look at life, the first multicellular animals
seem to have appeared several hundred million years ago, which is
approximately the same proportion (about one fifth) of total life's
existence. Was it really the beginning of life's collapse? (which is not a
linear process of course, with many ups and downs on a finer temporal
scale?)<U></U><U></U></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal>Just thoughts.<U></U><U></U></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal>Anastassia<U></U><U></U></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal>вт, 4 апр. 2023 г. в 20:17, Ugo Bardi <<A
href="mailto:prudentlobster@gmail.com"
target=_blank>prudentlobster@gmail.com</A>>:<U></U><U></U></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
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<DIV>
<P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 12pt" class=MsoNormal>You may have already seen
this paper just appeared on "Nature." <BR><BR><A
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01631-6.epdf"
target=_blank>https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01631-6.epdf</A><BR><BR>It
is an assessment of the role of the trophic chains on climate. It has
been described as a "landmark paper" and under several respects it is.
It is part of a general movement for rewilding, and there is even a
"Global Rewilding Alliance at <BR><BR><A
href="https://globalrewilding.earth/"
target=_blank>https://globalrewilding.earth/</A><BR><BR>Overall, the
concept is good and welcome, because it provides an alternative to the
multiple bizarre ideas that have been proposed as "solutions" for the
climate change problem, including cutting Northern Forests to increase
Earth's albedo. <BR><BR>On the other hand, it is still a subject in its
infancy. The authors haven't realized that there is not just carbon
sequestration at play in this game, and they miss the dynamic effects of
forests on the hydrological cycle (the kind of effects studied by
Gorshkov and Makarieva). But I think that it could be possible to merge
these concept in a single one. In both case, the idea is to restore the
ecosystem to its maximum trophic potential. <BR><BR>A deeper problem
lies in understanding why exactly trophic chains have the effects
claimed in the paper. If they do. Among other things, the "Trophic
Rewilding" idea is criticized by Anastassia Makarieva who maintains that
large animals damage the ecosystem, whereas the proponents say it is the
opposite. Complicated story -- I confess that I am a little lost in it.
What I can see is that these trophic chains are holobionts in the sense
that they operate on the win-win principle; every element of the chain
benefits from the other elements. <BR><BR>In any case there is something
deep, here, which I don't think has been explained in the details -- at
least as far as I know. The higher complexity of long and networked
trophic chain must be appearing in form of decreasing entropy of the
system in terms of the Kullback-Leiber divergence, that is the
difference in entropy between networked and less-networked systems. I
think it is related to Tononi's Integrated Information Theory, but
Tononi's ideas are expressed in terms of discrete states, whereas
holobionts work in terms of continuous energy levels. It is a
complicated story, but maybe someone in the list knows more than me in
this field?<U></U><U></U></P>
<P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 12pt" class=MsoNormal><U></U><U></U> </P><PRE>-- <U></U><U></U></PRE><PRE>*******************************<U></U><U></U></PRE><PRE>Ugo Bardi<U></U><U></U></PRE><PRE>Onward, Fellow Holobionts!<U></U><U></U></PRE><PRE><A href="https://theproudholobionts.blogspot.com" target=_blank>https://theproudholobionts.blogspot.com</A></PRE></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>Вы получили это сообщение, поскольку подписаны на
группу "seu-international".<BR></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=bulat.yessekin@gmail.com href="mailto:bulat.yessekin@gmail.com">Bulat
Yessekin</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, May 08, 2023 7:50 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Крах сложных обществ</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
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