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<DIV style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small" class=gmail_default><FONT
face="garamond, times new roman, serif"><STRONG>Albert Bates, Theory of
Change</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small" class=gmail_default><FONT
face="garamond, times new roman, serif"><STRONG>....</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default> </DIV><FONT
face="garamond, times new roman, serif">Общество - это контракт. . . . Это
партнерство во всех науках; партнерство во всех искусствах; партнерство во всех
добродетелях и во всем совершенстве. Поскольку цели такого партнерства могут
быть достигнуты только многими поколениями, оно становится партнерством не
только между теми, кто живет, но и между теми, кто живет, теми, кто умер, и
теми, кто должен родиться.<SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default> </SPAN>Однако наша дилемма заключается в том, что наш
контракт с несколькими поколениями был нарушен. Темпы изменения климата, которые
мы завещали будущим детям, не являются ни медленными, ни постепенными. Их
скорость даже отдаленно не в их пользу.<BR><BR>Все могло бы быть по-другому.
Когда в 1896 году Сванте Аррениус опубликовал в “Философском журнале“ и "Научном
журнале" первое предупреждение "О влиянии углекислого газа, содержащегося в
воздухе, на температуру земли", политики, прислушиваясь к мнению ученых, могли
бы принять к сведению и принять меры для создания углеродного баланса,
соответствующего поглощающей способности природы. Мы могли бы избежать этой
дилеммы столетие назад. Мы этого не сделали. Теперь следующие поколения детей,
которые родятся, вполне могут оказаться одними из последних.<SPAN
style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default> </SPAN>Хотя промышленная революция, ставшая возможной
благодаря использованию энергии ископаемого топлива, началась за столетие до
1850 года, загрязнение планеты было скрыто за дымом. Эти облака отражали
солнечный свет обратно в космос, сохраняя при этом тепло на поверхности планеты.
С 1750 по 1850 год глобальная температура повысилась всего на 1/10 градуса, а к
1950 году - всего на несколько десятых. Только в 1970-х годах, когда Закон о
чистом воздухе и его зарубежные аналоги начали вступать в силу, совокупное
наследие выбросов начало заявлять о себе. В этом году температура в мире будет
повышаться в четыре раза быстрее, чем в период между 1750 и 1850
годами.<BR><BR><STRONG>К концу этого десятилетия температура может повыситься в
пять раз (</STRONG>плохой перевод: прирост температуры, а не
температура - Вл <STRONG>)</STRONG> <BR>Конечно, люди замечают
это не столько из-за летних температур на улице или ранних оттепелей весной,
сколько из-за экстремальных погодных условий. Различные темпы потепления между
экватором и полюсами, а также над сушей и над океаном влияют на воздушные и
океанические течения, которые когда-то делали погоду предсказуемой, а теперь
дарят нам чередующиеся периоды похолодания как зимой, так и летом. Более теплый
воздух удерживает больше влаги, что приводит к увеличению числа “бомбовых
циклонов“, “автомобильных заторов“ и внезапных наводнений. Более жаркое лето и
более сухая зима приводят к более частым пожарам в лесных районах. Чрезвычайные
пожары, наводнения, “снежные бури“ и “огненный шторм“ привлекают наше внимание,
но вы еще ничего не видели.<BR><BR><B>При температуре 1,5°C — отметке, которую
мы преодолели в 2024 году, - мы включили "опрокидывающие элементы" </B>-
самоподкрепляющуюся обратную связь от нарушения естественного равновесия.
Полярные льды тают, отражающая поверхность становится темнее, поглощая больше
солнечного света. При растворении вечной мерзлоты и мелких клатратов выделяется
метан, который в 20-80 раз эффективнее согревает планету, чем углекислый газ,
образующийся при сжигании ископаемого топлива. Коралловые рифы. Тропические леса
Амазонки. Муссоны в Индии. Австралия горит. Сибирь горит. Каждый опрокидывающий
элемент воздействует на другие, добавляя что-то новое в смесь и поддерживая
ускорение.<BR><BR><B>Десять лет назад мы с Фрэнком Майклом опубликовали
подробный анализ сокращения выбросов углерода в атмосферу и океан с
использованием безопасных, надежных, естественных методов удаления парниковых
газов. На суше наш план предусматривал массовое лесовосстановление на
континентах — каждый год восстанавливались леса на нескольких территориях
размером с Испанию — путем ротационного сбора урожая и преобразования биомассы в
биоуголь для производства продуктов питания, топлива, энергии и целого ряда
других предметов первой необходимости. Мы представляли себе лагеря по
восстановлению экосистем, наполненные предприимчивой молодежью, сажающей эти
новые леса, когда они поют и танцуют.</B><BR><BR><B>В океане для восстановления
лесов были использованы ламинария и саргассум, а ежегодный сбор урожая был
направлен на более постоянное использование в качестве биоугля. Тем не менее, мы
признали, что все было бы напрасно, если бы мы также не решили проблему
парадокса Джевонса. Повышение эффективности не должно служить оправданием для
расширения деятельности, загрязняющей окружающую среду. Необходимо обеспечить
одновременное системное снижение роста. Это стало темой моей последней книги
"Ретропопуляционизм".</B><BR></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face="garamond, times new roman, serif"><SPAN
style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default>В </SPAN>этой книге я описал одну модель, взятую из
истории, которая может оказаться полезной, когда мы начинаем бороться с
неустойчивым. Моей моделью была лисья деревня Саукенук, в которой до 1830 года
проживало около 6000 человек. Сегодня он находится под мостовой 11-й улицы в
Квад-Сити, штат Иллинойс, в районе с населением 380 000 человек.<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: garamond,'times new roman',serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
face="garamond, times new roman, serif">Я бы хотел, чтобы мы снесли 11-ю улицу и
восстановили<SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)"
class=gmail_default> </SPAN>деревню </FONT><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: garamond,'times new roman',serif">Черного Ястреба<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: garamond,'times new roman',serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default>.</SPAN></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: garamond,'times new roman',serif"><BR></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="garamond, times new roman, serif"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: garamond,'times new roman',serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: small"
class=gmail_default>Cсылка на пост (если у кого есть книга поделитесь
пож)</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="garamond, times new roman, serif"><A
href="https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/my-not-very-palatable-theory-of-change?utm_campaign=email-post&r=4bkunu&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">https://cooldesign.substack.com/p/my-not-very-palatable-theory-of-change?utm_campaign=email-post&r=4bkunu&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="garamond, times new roman, serif"><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="garamond, times new roman, serif">Best regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_signature data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<DIV dir=ltr>
<DIV><FONT face="garamond, times new roman, serif">Bulat K.
YESSEKIN</FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><BR><BR>
<DIV class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container">
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>---------- Forwarded message ---------<BR>От:
<STRONG dir=auto class=gmail_sendername>Albert Bates from The Great
Change</STRONG> <SPAN dir=auto><<A
href="mailto:cooldesign@substack.com">cooldesign@substack.com</A>></SPAN><BR>Date:
вт, 24 февр. 2026 г. в 23:49<BR>Subject: My not very palatable theory of
change<BR>To: <<A
href="mailto:bulat.yessekin@gmail.com">bulat.yessekin@gmail.com</A>><BR></DIV><BR><BR>
<DIV style="font-kerning: auto"><IMG
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<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1px; DISPLAY: none; MAX-WIDTH: 0px; COLOR: #333333; MAX-HEIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 1px; OVERFLOW: hidden; opacity: 0">but
it won't kill you</DIV>
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1px; DISPLAY: none; MAX-WIDTH: 0px; COLOR: #333333; MAX-HEIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 1px; OVERFLOW: hidden; opacity: 0">͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
</DIV>
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<H1
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 36px; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Lora,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 32px; FONT-WEIGHT: 600"
dir=auto><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=602372&post_id=189044380&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=4bkunu&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNjEzMTMzMzgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE4OTA0NDM4MCwiaWF0IjoxNzcxOTU4OTg4LCJleHAiOjE3NzQ1NTA5ODgsImlzcyI6InB1Yi02MDIzNzIiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.aYez2b53w2uufKa2BKJLvrgqdTGxezo_oU9alLPmI4s"
target=_blank>My not very palatable theory of change</A></H1>
<H3
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 24px; MARGIN: 12px 0px 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: #777777; FONT-SIZE: 18px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal"
dir=auto>but it won't kill you</H3>
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<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; LETTER-SPACING: 0px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 11px; FONT-WEIGHT: 500"><A
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; LETTER-SPACING: 0px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 11px; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="https://substack.com/@cooldesign"
target=_blank>Albert
Bates</A></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><EM><SPAN>You
say you got a real solution</SPAN><BR><SPAN>Well, you
know</SPAN><BR><SPAN>We’d all love to see the plan</SPAN></EM></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">—The
Beatles, “Revolution“</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><STRONG>In
a talk at the Harvard Radcliffe Institute</STRONG><SPAN> on February 14,
conservative columnist David Brooks laid out a theory of
change.</SPAN></P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #f1de71 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><EM>Edmund
Burke, who’s one of my heroes, he thought change should be constant, but
always incremental. And he said, you should practice on society the way
you would prepare surgery on your father. You should be gentle,
non-invasive as possible. And so I don’t want to dismantle because,
despite my critiques, here I am.</EM></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">I
don’t identify as a political conservative the way Brooks does, but I
resonate strongly with his point about the danger of abrupt change. In a
brief to the United States Supreme Court in 1982, I also quoted Burke, who
argued that: </P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #f1de71 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><EM>the
temporary possessors and life rentors... should not think it among their
rights to cut off the entail, or commit waste on the inheritance. . .
[lest they] leave to those who come after them a ruin instead of a
habitation.</EM></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Speaking
of the society into which each of us is born, Burke argued that it is
always wrong to “hack that aged parent in pieces.”</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #f1de71 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><EM>Society
is indeed a contract. . . . It is a partnership in all science; a
partnership in all art; a partnership in every virtue, and in all
perfection. As the ends of such a partnership cannot be obtained except
by many generations, it becomes a partnership not only between those who
are living, but between those who are living, those who are dead, and
those who are to be born. </EM></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Our
dilemma, however, is that our multigenerational contract has been
breached. The pace of the climate legacy we have bequeathed to future
children is neither slow nor gradual. Its speed is not even remotely in
their favor.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>It
might have been different. When Svante Arrhenius issued the first warning,
“On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the
Ground,“ in the </SPAN><EM>Philosophical Magazine and Journal of
Science</EM><SPAN> in 1896, politicians, listening to scientists, could
have taken note and acted to create a carbon budget aligned with nature’s
absorptive capacity. We might have averted the dilemma a century ago. We
did not. Now, the next generations of children being born could well be
among the last.</SPAN></P>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Although
the industrial revolution, made possible by the embodied energy of fossil
fuels, began a century before 1850, its planetary pollution was concealed
by smoke. Those clouds reflected sunlight back to space, even as they kept
the planet’s surface warm. Global temperature only rose 1/10 of a degree
from 1750 to 1850, and only a few tenths more by 1950. It was not until
the Clean Air Act and its foreign counterparts began to take effect in the
1970s that the cumulative legacy of emissions began to assert itself. This
</SPAN><EM><STRONG>year</STRONG></EM><SPAN> the world will heat four times
faster than in the </SPAN><EM><STRONG>century</STRONG></EM><SPAN> between
1750 and 1850.</SPAN></P>
<P
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the end of this </SPAN><EM><STRONG>decade,</STRONG></EM><SPAN> it may be
heating five times faster.</SPAN></P>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Of
course, the way people notice that is less through outdoor summer
temperatures or early thaws in the Spring, and more through experiences of
extreme weather. The different rates of warming between the equator and
the poles, and over land versus over ocean, affect the air and ocean
currents that once made weather predictable and now give us alternating
hot and cold flashes in winter and summer alike. Warmer air holds more
moisture, generating more “bomb cyclones,“ “car soups,“ and flash floods.
Hotter summer waves and drier winters lead to more frequent fire
conditions in forested areas. The extreme fires, floods, “snownadoes“ and
“firenadoes“ draw our attention, but yo ain’t seen nuttin yet. </P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">At
1.5°C, a marker we passed in 2024, we’ve triggered tipping
elements—self-reinforcing feedback from destabilized natural balances.
Polar ice melts, darkening the reflective surface, absorbing more
sunlight. Dissolving permafrost and shallow clathrates releasing methane
that is 20 to 80 times more effective at warming the planet than carbon
dioxide from fossil fuels. Coral reefs. The Amazon rainforest. The Indian
Monsoon. Australia burning. Siberia burning. Each tipping element feeds
upon others, adding more to the mix, sustaining the acceleration.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">A
decade ago, Frank Michael and I published a detailed analysis of
atmospheric and oceanic carbon drawdown using safe, reliable, natural
methods of greenhouse gas removal. On land, our plan involved massive
reforestation of continents—several areas the size of Spain reforested
each year—with rotational harvesting and the conversion of biomass to
biochar for food, fuel, energy, and a panopoly of other necessities. We
imagined Ecosystem Regeneration Camps, filled with adventurous youth,
planting these new forests as they sang and danced. </P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>In
the ocean, the reforestation was accomplished with kelp and sargassum,
again with an annual harvest devoted to more permanent withdrawal as
biochar. Still, we acknowledged, all would be for naught if we did not
also solve for Jevons Paradox. Increased efficiency should not become an
excuse to expand polluting activity. There needed to be simultaneous
systemic degrowth. That became the subject of my most recent book,
</SPAN><EM>Retropopulationism</EM><SPAN>.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">In
that book, I described one model, taken from history, that may be
instructive when we set about to unsustain the unsustainable. My model was
the Fox village of Saukenuk that housed around 6,000 people prior to 1830.
Today, it lies under the pavement of 11th Street in the Quad Cities,
Illinois, a metro area of 380,000 people. </P>
<P
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village...</P></DIV></DIV>
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<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=bulat.yessekin@gmail.com
href="mailto:bulat.yessekin@gmail.com">Bulat Yessekin</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, February 25, 2026 11:26 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Fwd: План восстановления планеты (Albert
Bates)</DIV></DIV>
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