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<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Друзья, <BR></DIV>
<DIV>в тему - если я правильно понимаю - бесплодного окончания СОР-29. 
<BR></DIV>
<DIV>Два сообщения, которые при поверхностном просмотре (я не специалист) 
показались мне очень интересными. </DIV>
<DIV>Может быть, кто-то - вникнув - поделится с сообществом.</DIV>
<DIV>Свет </DIV>
<DIV><BR> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>От: <B dir=auto class=gmail_sendername>'rob de 
laet' via The Proud Holobionts</B> <SPAN dir=auto><<A 
href="mailto:theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com">theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com</A>></SPAN><BR>Date: 
пт, 22 нояб. 2024 г. в 10:39<BR>Subject: Re: [Holobionts] Record heat goes 
on<BR><SPAN 
id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpb66d67dcdocs-internal-guid-e4eeff1c-7fff-1c0a-5af0-ca059320d7f7><SPAN 
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<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr><SPAN><SPAN 
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<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr><SPAN><SPAN 
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<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr><SPAN><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline">Hi 
Dorota and everybody, </SPAN></DIV>
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style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><BR></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt"><SPAN 
style="FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline">In 
the 5th Report of IPCC on the page 666 is written:</SPAN><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"> 
Myhre et al. 2013  </SPAN></DIV>
<P 
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; PADDING-LEFT: 0pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt; PADDING-TOP: 0pt" 
dir=ltr><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline">‘’As 
the largest contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, water vapor plays an 
essential role in the Earth’s climate. However, the amount of water vapor in the 
atmosphere is controlled mostly by air temperature, rather than by emissions. 
For that reason, scientists consider it a feedback agent, rather than a forcing 
to climate change. Anthropogenic emissions of water vapor through irrigation or 
power plant cooling have a negligible impact on the global climate“.</SPAN></P>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt" dir=ltr><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; FONT-WEIGHT: 700">This 
is blatantly wrong! </SPAN><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline">The 
climatologists may need years to figure this out, but we do not have that time 
left. When water vapor condenses to form clouds, it releases latent heat that is 
radiated back into space, in large part through the atmospheric window. Also, 
the clouds increase the Earth's albedo, reflecting sunlight and creating a 
cooling effect. This dual influence (and there are more, such as the tropopause 
heating up and the low Bowen ratio over forests, making GHGs ineffective, 
lowering their climate sensitivity!) makes water a major cooling forcing of the 
climate through phase change! </SPAN></P>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt" 
dir=ltr><BR></P>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 12pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 12pt" dir=ltr><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline">Peter 
Bunyard and Rob de Laet, co-authors of the article: ‘’Restoring the earth’s 
damaged temperature regulation is the fastest way out of the climate crisis - 
cooling the planet with plants’’</SPAN><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"> 
calculated the temperature fingerprint of the earlier record drought in the 
Amazon in 2005, which was in a neutral year where temperatures were not affected 
by either El Nino or La Nina, and came out at a value of 0.24°C and lo and 
behold, there is a spike in global temperatures at the end of that year of 
roughly that magnitude, indicating that our calculations about the cooling power 
of the rainforests may well be close to the truth. </SPAN></P><BR>
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src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeNlsu1RBUvon1X-aU8C0GeXMMTPeNR_60hPHCXEuKQ3bQSHIJ0msSnfLEwj2y0FLDSRGoWZFHZ1qlYin5V3Ph7lxgmnWkfbo6DpOhWNHjiV7XYw8EyLh2D0LO_16_kiji4Q9GkRz5mls4W5hAO8ekKIfY6?key=2OhKgtCIZKOn3F5IrKs29A"></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt"><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline">Based 
on this, while the final data are not in yet, we can estimate that the 
additional global warming caused by the 2023 and 2024 droughts in the Amazon 
combined, could add about 0.4°C to global temperatures. Although there are more 
factors affecting yearly variations, the largest short term variation is 
typically caused by the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). During El Niño 
years, global temperatures usually increase by approximately 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C, 
whereas during La Niña years, they generally decrease by about the same amount. 
In 2023 we had an El Nino, and now when this article is written (first week 
October 2024), we are in the neutral phase going into a weak La Nina. So the 
total drought signature minus the ENSO variation would probably be around + 
0.1 °C compared to the start of the drought in 2023.</SPAN><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"> 
In the chart below you see that despite coming out of an El Nino, the 
temperatures in 2024 track those of 2023 closely and it would be logical that, 
depending on the strength of the La Nina the end 2024 temperatures could equal 
those of 2023 or even above, despite the flip of the ENSO, which normally would 
decrease global temperatures by between 0.2 and 0.4 °C. On 29 October 2024 the 
global temperature anomaly compared to the 1979-2000 average was 1.41 °C and 
around 2-2.1 °C</SPAN><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"> 
above the pre-industrial baseline.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt"><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><BR></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt" dir=ltr><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; FONT-FAMILY: Calibri,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(38,40,42); FONT-SIZE: 12pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline">A 
few weeks later, we see that global temperatures have come down by about 0.4 C, 
compared to 2023, see chart below. During the droughts, the biotic pump had 
collapsed, the rivers were so low that the trees could not suck water to 
properly photosynthesize and evapotranspire. This gave immediate increase in 
temperatures and also the heat over the tropical Atlantic was not transported to 
the Amazon. Maybe 70% of rain over the Amazon is recycled moisture from 
evapotranspiration, the rest is moisture blown in from the trade winds. Right 
now, with the <SPAN>shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), 
which brings moisture, rains have returned to the southern Amazon and a weak 
biotic pump is reappearing. So the airconditioner is functioning a bit 
again.</SPAN></SPAN></DIV><BR>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.2; MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt" dir=ltr><IMG 
style="WIDTH: 100%; MAX-WIDTH: 800px" title="Inline image" alt="Inline image" 
src="cid:0470864EC8284C539D85E8B8E965C407@lewpostnew"><BR><SPAN></SPAN></P>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P></P>If we keep on focusing only on carbon and don't include the cooiing 
capacity of forests and especially the tropical rainforests in the models, we 
will misdiagnose a large part of the heating up of the planet and go on hacking 
away at our airconditioners while staring at the Keeling 
curve. </SPAN></DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>Best,</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif; FONT-SIZE: 13px" 
dir=ltr><SPAN></SPAN><SPAN></SPAN><SPAN></SPAN>
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<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif" dir=ltr>
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<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)" 
dir=ltr><SPAN><I><A 
style="COLOR: rgb(25,106,212); text-decoration-line: underline" 
href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/robdelaet/" shape=rect 
rel="noreferrer noopener" target=_blank>Rob de Laet</A> </I></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)" 
dir=ltr><I><A href="https://www.ecorestorationalliance.org/" 
rel="noreferrer noopener" target=_blank>Member of the EcoRestoration 
Alliance</A><BR></I></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)" 
dir=ltr><I><A href="https://www.evergreening.org/" rel="noreferrer noopener" 
target=_blank>Fellow of Global Evergreening Alliance</A><BR></I></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)" 
dir=ltr><I><A href="https://senangecoservices.com/" rel="noreferrer noopener" 
target=_blank>Co-founder of Senang Eco Services</A><BR></I></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)" 
dir=ltr><I>WhatsApp: +55 71 992617846</I></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: verdana,helvetica,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)" 
dir=ltr><I><BR></I></DIV></DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><I><BR></I></DIV></DIV><BR></DIV></DIV></DIV>
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<DIV id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yahoo_quoted_2277644505>
<DIV 
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; COLOR: #26282a; FONT-SIZE: 13px">
<DIV>On Friday 22 November 2024 at 08:15:27 CET, 'Dorota Retelska' via The Proud 
Holobionts <<A href="mailto:theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com" 
target=_blank>theproudholobionts@googlegroups.com</A>> wrote: </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yiv2136296139>
<DIV>
<DIV 
style="FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>Dear All,</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>Thanks for the Berkeley Earth update. We're at the end of El Nino, 
temperatures should go down but they don't, they're stay extremely high and 
might even keep climbing,</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>It's very worrisome. Several scientists, James E. Hansen, the WMO 
and Johan Rockström noted that the global warming accelerates, James E. Hansen 
calculated that at current warming pace will reach 2°C in 2040 and then, in 
2023, exhausted ecosystems emitted CO2 in fires and in total absorbed less CO2 
which might lead to a further acceleration. Climate change might worsen 
fast.  Forests are a great idea, they also store carbon in fertile 
soil, </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>Best,</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>Dorota Retelska, Ph.D. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV></DIV>
<DIV id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yiv2136296139yahoo_quoted_2404401825>
<DIV 
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; COLOR: #26282a; FONT-SIZE: 13px">
<DIV>Le vendredi 22 novembre 2024 à 08:02:15 UTC+1, Tarcisio Bonotto <<A 
href="mailto:tarcisio.bonotto@gmail.com" 
target=_blank>tarcisio.bonotto@gmail.com</A>> a écrit : </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yiv2136296139>
<DIV>
<DIV><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-FAMILY: roboto,arial,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(77,81,86); FONT-SIZE: small">It 
is true that from 10,000 years ago to today, approximately 2 billion hectares of 
forest have disappeared. In addition to our emissions, this has raised global 
temperatures. Europe has around 6% of global CO2 emissions, even if they went to 
zero, we would only have solved 1% of the world's warming problems. Why, in 
addition to reducing emissions, not think about restoring millions of hectares 
of forests?</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-FAMILY: roboto,arial,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(77,81,86); FONT-SIZE: small"><BR 
clear=none></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN 
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-FAMILY: roboto,arial,sans-serif; COLOR: rgb(77,81,86); FONT-SIZE: small">Tarcisio</SPAN></DIV><BR 
clear=none>
<DIV id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yiv2136296139yqt16562>
<DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>Il ven 22 nov 2024, 05:14 Matias Schüttenberg <<A 
href="mailto:matschutt@gmail.com" shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener" 
target=_blank>matschutt@gmail.com</A>> ha scritto:<BR clear=none></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex">
  <DIV></DIV><BR clear=none>
  <DIV>
  <DIV dir=ltr>---------- Forwarded message ---------<BR clear=none>From: 
  <B>Berkeley Earth</B> <SPAN><<A href="mailto:admin@berkeleyearth.org" 
  shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener" 
  target=_blank>admin@berkeleyearth.org</A>></SPAN><BR clear=none>Date: Thu, 
  Nov 21, 2024, 17:51<BR clear=none>Subject: October 2024 Temperature Update<BR 
  clear=none>To: <<A href="mailto:matschutt@gmail.com" shape=rect 
  rel="noreferrer noopener" target=_blank>matschutt@gmail.com</A>><BR 
  clear=none></DIV><BR clear=none><BR clear=none><U></U>
  <DIV 
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  style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0px; MIN-HEIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: none; MAX-WIDTH: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 0px">With 
  two months remaining, 2024 is nearly certain to finish as the warmest year on 
  record.</SPAN> 
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                              vAlign=top><A title="" 
                                href="https://berkeleyearth.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=4de28539c497455e2b1c4f0d1&id=cfb05f0ae9&e=a788a5a0f0" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener" 
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                              style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; PADDING-LEFT: 18px; PADDING-RIGHT: 18px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                              vAlign=top><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px">Included in this 
                                newsletter: </SPAN></SPAN> 
                                <UL>
                                <LI><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px">Findings from our <A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener">October 
                                2024 </A>Temperature Update</SPAN></SPAN>
                                <LI><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px">A new paper in 
                                <I>Nature </I>evaluates the <A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_bias" 
                                shape=rect 
                                rel="noreferrer noopener">cold-bias</A> in the 
                                early 20th-century ocean temp 
                                record</SPAN></SPAN>
                                <LI><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px">New research from 
                                Berkeley Earth at the <A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_agu" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener">AGU 
                                conference</A> in December</SPAN></SPAN>
                                <LI><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px">Join us in advancing 
                                open data by <A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_donate" 
                                shape=rect 
                                rel="noreferrer noopener">supporting Berkeley 
                                Earth</A> in your end-of-year 
                                giving.</SPAN></SPAN></LI></UL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                            <TBODY>
                            <TR>
                              <TD 
                              style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; PADDING-LEFT: 18px; PADDING-RIGHT: 18px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                              vAlign=top>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><SPAN 
                                style="COLOR: #696969"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 18px"><B><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"></A>October 
                                2024 Temperature Update:<BR clear=none>2024 on 
                                track to be another record-setting 
                                year</B></SPAN></SPAN><BR 
                              clear=none> </DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                              style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; PADDING-LEFT: 9px; PADDING-RIGHT: 9px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                              vAlign=top align=middle><A title="" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"><IMG 
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                                alt="" 
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                              <TD 
                              style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; PADDING-LEFT: 9px; PADDING-RIGHT: 9px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                              vAlign=top width=564><BR clear=none><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Globally, 
                                October 2024 was nominally the second warmest 
                                October since directly measured instrumental 
                                records began in 1850. October 2024 was measured 
                                as 1.69 ± 0.09 °C (3.04 ± 0.17 °F) above the 
                                corresponding 1850-1900 average. This is 0.02 °C 
                                (0.04 °F) cooler than the October 2023 record, 
                                but as this difference is much smaller than the 
                                corresponding uncertainty, October 2024 was 
                                effectively tied with 2023 for the warmest 
                                October. All other October averages prior to 
                                2023 have been at least 0.25 °C (0.45 °F) 
                                cooler.</SPAN></SPAN><BR clear=none><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"></SPAN></SPAN>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </DIV><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"><IMG 
                                style="MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; WIDTH: 600px; MAX-WIDTH: 600px; TEXT-DECORATION: none" 
                                src="https://mcusercontent.com/4de28539c497455e2b1c4f0d1/images/9b82b118-3f11-e53d-c064-3692eacc0eb1.png"></A> 

                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">  
                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Sixteen 
                                of the last seventeen months have set or 
                                effectively tied the monthly global temperature 
                                record, with only September 2024 serving as an 
                                exception. In addition, October 2024 marks the 
                                sixteenth consecutive month at least 1.5 °C 
                                warmer than the corresponding 1850 to 1900 
                                monthly average.<BR clear=none><BR 
                                clear=none>The 12-month moving average of global 
                                mean temperature now stands at 1.64 ± 0.07 °C 
                                (2.95 ± 0.13 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. We 
                                are likely at or near the peak for this warming 
                                event, as relative cooling is expected soon 
                                following the recent end of El 
                                Niño.</SPAN></SPAN><BR 
                                clear=none> </P></DIV>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"><IMG 
                                style="MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; WIDTH: 600px; MAX-WIDTH: 800px; TEXT-DECORATION: none" 
                                src="https://mcusercontent.com/4de28539c497455e2b1c4f0d1/images/ba276cc5-f481-b1de-cdba-8834d122402c.png"></A></DIV>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><BR 
                                clear=none><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">One 
                                of the Paris Agreement ambitions has been to 
                                limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C (2.7 
                                °F) above the preindustrial baseline. That goal 
                                is defined in reference to the average climate 
                                over many years, so a year or two above 1.5 °C 
                                does not automatically mean that the target has 
                                been exceeded. However, recent anomalies above 
                                1.5 °C are a sign that the Earth is getting 
                                close to that limit. It is likely that global 
                                warming will cause the long-term average to 
                                exceed 1.5 °C during the late 2020s or early 
                                2030s unless significant reductions in 
                                greenhouse gas emissions are achieved 
                                soon.</SPAN></SPAN><BR clear=none><BR 
                                clear=none><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN 
                                style="COLOR: #696969"><B><I>Spatial 
                                Variation</I></B></SPAN></SPAN></DIV>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">
                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">October 
                                2024 continues the ongoing pattern of widespread 
                                warmth, with a few important exceptions. 
                                Particularly warm conditions were present in 
                                parts of Asia, North Africa, North America, 
                                South America, the Arctic, the western North 
                                Atlantic, and North Pacific.</SPAN></SPAN></P>
                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">We 
                                estimate that 7.2% of the Earth’s surface 
                                experienced their locally warmest October 
                                average (including 7.6% of land areas), and 85% 
                                of the Earth’s surface was significantly warm 
                                when compared to their local average during the 
                                period 1951 to 1980. By contrast, none of the 
                                Earth’s surface had their locally coldest 
                                October.<BR clear=none><BR clear=none>Considered 
                                in terms of the average over the last 12 months 
                                (November 2023 to October 2024), record warmth 
                                has been widespread, especially in the tropics. 
                                Large parts of South America, Africa, Southeast 
                                Asia, Europe, Canada, the Atlantic and Indian 
                                Ocean have had a 12-month average that is higher 
                                than any previous November to October period. No 
                                regions have significant relative cooling during 
                                this period.</SPAN></SPAN></P></DIV><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"><IMG 
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                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><BR 
                                clear=none><SPAN style="COLOR: #696969"><I><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><B>2024: On track for a 
                                record finish</B></SPAN></I></SPAN></DIV>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">
                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">With 
                                ten months completed, 2024 will almost certainly 
                                be the warmest year since instrumental 
                                measurements began, moderately exceeding the 
                                record set in 2023. The first ten months of 2024 
                                started with many large anomalies, though this 
                                is expected to cool somewhat at the end of 2024. 
                                The El Niño that began in 2023 provided 
                                significant warmth for both 2023 and 2024. It is 
                                typically true that the second year after an El 
                                Niño emerges is warmer than the first, though 
                                that is not guaranteed.</SPAN></SPAN></P>
                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">The 
                                statistical approach that we use, looking at 
                                conditions in recent months, now believes that 
                                2024 has a >99% chance of being warmer than 
                                2023, making this outcome almost certain. The 
                                ultimate annual average will still somewhat 
                                depend on the magnitude and timing of a possible 
                                La Niña at the end of 2024, but such an event is 
                                expected to be too late and too weak to prevent 
                                2024 from becoming the newest record warm 
                                year.<BR clear=none><BR clear=none>This forecast 
                                probability of record warmth is substantially 
                                increased from the approximately 50-60% chance 
                                previously estimated in January-April, but only 
                                slightly changed from the 92% chance of a record 
                                estimated in June and the 96% chance estimated 
                                in July.</SPAN></SPAN></P>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><BR 
                                clear=none><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"><IMG 
                                style="MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; WIDTH: 600px; MAX-WIDTH: 800px; TEXT-DECORATION: none" 
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                                <DIV 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </DIV></DIV>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">The 
                                full text of our June 2024 Temperature Update is 
                                available via the link 
                                below, including an updated discussion 
                                of the ENSO outlook and the impacts of the 
                                2023-2024 El Niño cycle.  Click below 
                                to access the full 
                                report. </SPAN></SPAN><BR 
                                clear=none> </DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                              vAlign=center align=middle><A 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 100%; DISPLAY: block; LETTER-SPACING: normal; COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-DECORATION: none" 
                                title="October 2024 Temperature Update" 
                                href="https://berkeleyearth.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=4de28539c497455e2b1c4f0d1&id=3bb1cee604&e=a788a5a0f0" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener" 
                                target=_blank>October 2024 Temperature 
                                Update</A> 
                    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                              <TD><SPAN></SPAN></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                              <TD><SPAN></SPAN></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                              <TD 
                              style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; PADDING-LEFT: 18px; PADDING-RIGHT: 18px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                              vAlign=top>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><FONT 
                                face="lato, helvetica neue, helvetica, arial, sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 18px"><B> <A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yiv2136296139m_-9118135271595882102m_-3103837222558232624m_5074481175410572119bias 
                                shape=rect 
                                name=m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_bias 
                                rel="noreferrer noopener"></A>Evaluating bias in 
                                the early-20th century ocean temperature 
                                record</B></SPAN></FONT><BR 
                                clear=none> </DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                              <TD 
                              style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; PADDING-LEFT: 18px; PADDING-RIGHT: 18px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                              vAlign=top>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px">A new paper published 
                                this week in <I>Nature,</I> co-authored by 
                                Berkeley Earth Chief Scientist Dr. Robert Rohde, 
                                reveals that global sea surface temperature 
                                (SST) records from 1900–1930 are significantly 
                                cooler than previously thought, suggesting an 
                                unaccounted cold bias in early 
                                observations.</SPAN></SPAN></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                              style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 9px; PADDING-RIGHT: 9px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                              vAlign=top><A title="" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"><IMG 
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                                alt="" align=middle 
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                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">By 
                                reconstructing global mean surface temperatures 
                                (GMST) using modern statistical methods, the 
                                research provides a clearer understanding of 
                                historical temperature trends. This correction 
                                refines estimates of early-twentieth-century 
                                warming and enhances the alignment between 
                                observed and simulated global 
                                temperatures.</SPAN></SPAN><BR clear=none><BR 
                                clear=none><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Uncertainties 
                                in the historic ocean temperature 
                                record are the main limitation on global 
                                average temperature measurement accuracy for 
                                most of the last 170 years, and 
                                yet accurate historical temperature records 
                                are critical for understanding climate 
                                variability and informing policy decisions on 
                                climate change. </SPAN></SPAN><BR 
                                clear=none> </P>
                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener"><IMG 
                                style="MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; WIDTH: 500px; MAX-WIDTH: 800px; TEXT-DECORATION: none" 
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                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><BR 
                                clear=none><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Early 
                                records, which combine sea surface and land 
                                temperatures, are fraught with significant 
                                uncertainties due to changing measurement 
                                techniques and incomplete data. By identifying 
                                and correcting these biases, this 
                                research better aligns historical trends 
                                with observed warming patterns, with 
                                implications for understanding the pace of 
                                global warming and the accuracy of future 
                                projections.<BR clear=none><BR clear=none>While 
                                the estimates of total warming since the 
                                preindustrial period dis little changed by these 
                                revisions, this research does highlight the need 
                                to for continued research to better 
                                understand past changes, especially in the 
                                oceans.</SPAN></SPAN><BR clear=none><BR 
                                clear=none><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">A 
                                more detailed analysis of the findings can be 
                                found in Dr. Rohde's extended thread on ocean 
                                temperature uncertainties, available <A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="https://berkeleyearth.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=4de28539c497455e2b1c4f0d1&id=2c099cd8ec&e=a788a5a0f0" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener" 
                                target=_blank>here</A>. <BR clear=none><BR 
                                clear=none>The full text of the paper (open 
                                access) is available at <I>Nature</I> via the 
                                link below. </SPAN></SPAN><BR 
                                clear=none><BR clear=none><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 12px">(First image ©Sippel et 
                                al., reproduced courtesy of <I>Nature</I>; 
                                second image ©Robert A 
                              Rohde.)</SPAN></SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                                title="Read More" 
                                href="https://berkeleyearth.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=4de28539c497455e2b1c4f0d1&id=2a0973a153&e=a788a5a0f0" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener" 
                                target=_blank>Read More</A> 
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                          style="MIN-WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; FLOAT: left" 
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                          align=left>
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                              <TD 
                              style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; PADDING-LEFT: 18px; PADDING-RIGHT: 18px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #757575; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
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                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><B><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 18px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yiv2136296139m_-9118135271595882102m_-3103837222558232624m_5074481175410572119agu 
                                shape=rect 
                                name=m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_agu 
                                rel="noreferrer noopener"></A>New Research 
                                from Berkeley Earth at AGU 
                                2024 </SPAN></SPAN></B></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="#m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_" 
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                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><BR 
                                clear=none><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Berkeley 
                                Earth will be presenting new research 
                                at two sessions of the AGU 2024 conference 
                                in December, 
including: </SPAN></SPAN></DIV>
                                <UL>
                                <LI style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Monday, 
                                December 9th - Session GC045 - Climate 
                                Downscaling and Wether Post-Processing: 
                                Development, Evaluation and 
                                Application</SPAN></SPAN>
                                <LI style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">Tuesday, 
                                December 10th - Session GC23K-02 - Record Global 
                                Temperature in 2023: A Review of Anomalous 
                                Temperature Patterns and Possible Contributing 
                                Factors</SPAN></SPAN></LI></UL>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">More 
                                information to follow. </SPAN></SPAN><BR 
                                clear=none> </DIV>
                                <DIV style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 14px"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif">If 
                                you will be in Washington DC for the conference 
                                and are interested in meeting with 
                                representatives from Berkeley Earth, please send 
                                a note to <A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                href="mailto:admin@berkeleyearth.org?subject=AGU%20December%20Meeting" 
                                shape=rect rel="noreferrer noopener" 
                                target=_blank>admin@berkeleyearth.org</A>. </SPAN></SPAN></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                                <P 
                                style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; MARGIN: 10px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica; COLOR: #f2f2f2; FONT-SIZE: 14px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; PADDING-TOP: 0px" 
                                dir=ltr><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-FAMILY: lato,helvetica neue,helvetica,arial,sans-serif"><SPAN 
                                style="FONT-SIZE: 12px"><A 
                                style="COLOR: #007c89; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" 
                                id=m_-3455323381056750800ydpa83213a5yiv2136296139m_-9118135271595882102m_-3103837222558232624m_5074481175410572119donate 
                                shape=rect 
                                name=m_-3455323381056750800_m_-9118135271595882102_m_-3103837222558232624_m_5074481175410572119_donate 
                                rel="noreferrer noopener"></A>Berkeley Earth is 
                                a California-based 501c3 non-profit research 
                                organization renowned for its commitment to 
                                independent climate science and analysis. 
                                Founded in 2013, the organization has led the 
                                development and application of AI and advanced 
                                statistical methods to the analysis of 
                                environmental data. Berkeley Earth's approach to 
                                climate science combines rigorous data analysis 
                                with a transparent methodology, providing clear 
                                and unbiased information about global 
                                temperature changes and their implications. 
                                Referenced by the UN IPCC and contributing 
                                regularly to leading climate journalism, 
                                Berkeley Earth plays a crucial role in informing 
                                public understanding and policymaking on global 
                                temperature 
                                trends. </SPAN></SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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                                title="Donate Now" 
                                href="https://berkeleyearth.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=4de28539c497455e2b1c4f0d1&id=8c7609aebb&e=a788a5a0f0" 
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<P></P>Вы получили это сообщение, поскольку подписаны на 
группу "Региональная платформа по водным вопросам Центральной Азии и др 
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<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A 
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</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, November 23, 2024 4:49 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Fwd: [Holobionts] Record heat goes on</DIV></DIV>
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