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<DIV>Друзья, доброго времени суток</DIV>
<DIV>Очень актуально в свете событий СОР30.</DIV>
<DIV>Гугл вам в помощь.</DIV>
<DIV>Яндекс-переводчиком пользоваться не советую. <BR></DIV>
<DIV>Свет </DIV>
<DIV><BR> </DIV>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>From: <B dir=auto
class=gmail_sendername>Anastassia Makarieva</B> <SPAN dir=auto><<A
href="mailto:bioticregulation@substack.com"
target=_blank>bioticregulation@substack.com</A>></SPAN><BR>Date: пт, 21 нояб.
2025 г. в 13:39<BR>Subject: Ecosystem Collapse and Extreme Weather Events — in
That Order<BR></DIV>
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dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>A Link Persistently Missing from the Climate Change
Narrative</DIV>
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style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1px; DISPLAY: none; MAX-WIDTH: 0px; COLOR: #333333; MAX-HEIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 1px; OVERFLOW: hidden; opacity: 0"
dir=ltr class=gmail_attr>͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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͏ </DIV>
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dir=auto><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3234926&post_id=175882447&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2m2m42&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3NTg4MjQ0NywiaWF0IjoxNzYzNzIxNTYzLCJleHAiOjE3NjYzMTM1NjMsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zMjM0OTI2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.2RbZPS8MF7Hgxvf00m57jZwKXPf32hodvpHnFvPBiDY"
target=_blank>Ecosystem Collapse and Extreme Weather Events — in That
Order</A></H1>
<H3
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 24px; MARGIN: 12px 0px 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: #777777; FONT-SIZE: 18px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal"
dir=auto>A Link Persistently Missing from the Climate Change
Narrative</H3>
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href="https://substack.com/@anastassiamakarieva"
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21</DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">There
are places on Earth where wild nature rules. But where most humans now
find themselves, local ecosystems have been weakened to a morbid state,
and the power of nature has faded from people’s worldview.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">The
two photos below were taken just ten days apart in autumn 2025. I love the
bright fall colors in both, yet the worlds they depict are as far apart in
natural complexity as one could imagine.</P>
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<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=1456 align=left><A
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href="https://substack.com/redirect/9d60c499-66e5-4d4c-b3c2-fb6f8240b4c7?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
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alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!l3Kw!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41088b8d-17a4-4d8e-8f7e-e55e9d732f24_2922x1092.webp"
width=550 height=205></A></TD>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
first photo shows an untamed tributary of a tributary of the Yenisey river
in Siberia. The reddish layer on the water is a drift of tree seeds which
my great friend Antonio Nobre refers to as the </SPAN><I>most
sophisticated technology</I><SPAN> on Earth. These tiny vessels have been
carrying life forward for millions of years.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">The
second photo shows local people practicing their national sport on the
degrading pastures in Central Asia. According to Professor Emil Shukurov,
a prominent Kyrgyz ecologist, it was somewhere in these highlands that,
hundreds of years ago, the heroes of the national epos used to lose their
way for days as they wandered through the forests. Now this landscape,
dominated by large animals, has been pared down to a stark form, radically
depleted in complexity.</P>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">What
are the climatic consequences of this simplification?</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>We
were discussing this question at the United Nations Development Program
office in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. The conversation began with
the tragedy of the commons: </SPAN><I>local</I><SPAN> businesses rarely
consider the long-term ecological, environmental, </SPAN><I>let alone
climatic</I><SPAN> damage caused by overgrazing. But while preparing for
the talk, I checked what major </SPAN><I>global</I><SPAN> companies at the
World Economic Forum list as their key risks for the next ten years.
Ecosystem collapse was right at the top, second only to extreme weather
events.</SPAN></P>
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href="https://substack.com/redirect/0b9ece17-51d2-4120-b5bf-f3a5edc4c244?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I><A
href="https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/"
target=_blank>https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/</A></I></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><B>Could
this explicit risk recognition by major concentrations of global wealth
translate into more extensive and effective nature-protection
policies?</B><SPAN> To increase this likelihood, I thought it might help
to show the broader public that the top risk, extreme weather events, is
also </SPAN><B>directly tied to the loss of ecosystem
wellbeing</B><SPAN>.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>To
this end, we recall that the familiar narrative links extreme weather
events directly to global warming. (We discussed this recently in
</SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/ab023a47-bacc-49f2-bd04-3b38a0fe3861?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>“The Rabbit–Duck Illusion in Climate Messaging: An
Example from Wildfire Policy.”</A><SPAN>) Yet while the
</SPAN><I>qualitative</I><SPAN> link for the </SPAN><I>global</I><SPAN>
warming appears straightforward—more CO₂, a greenhouse gas, leads to a
higher global mean surface temperature—the
</SPAN><I>quantitative</I><SPAN> picture is less certain. The best global
climate models still differ by about a factor of three in their
projections of warming for a doubling of CO₂ (as discussed in another post
</SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/fdec9e8c-07a6-4276-8ea0-ebefb341cad2?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>here</A><SPAN>).</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
situation with </SPAN><I>local</I><SPAN> temperature extremes is even more
challenging, because what matters is not just the mean temperature but the
entire temperature probability distribution. And it turns out that the
global climate models do not properly capture the trends in extreme
temperatures.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Below
is a figure from a recent study by </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/fe6a327a-fa8a-4702-b143-edfd7fa6a2f0?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Kornhuber et al. 2024</A><SPAN>, </SPAN><I>“Global
emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model
simulations”,</I><SPAN> showing the difference in the rates of mean and
extreme local warming in observations (red) versus models (black), along
with their ratio (purple, right axis).</SPAN></P>
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href="https://substack.com/redirect/65627306-f601-4ee8-85f8-600018afe396?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BLzv!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffc76a419-a06b-404a-81d9-46126b5808a8_908x638.png"
width=550 height=386></A></TD>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Here,
the 99th percentile represents the median day among the hottest 2% of days
in a year in a given location on land (as resolved by the ERA5 dataset),
while the 87.5th percentile approximates an average summer day. If the
hottest days warm faster (or more slowly) than the average summer day, the
values on the horizontal axis are positive (or negative), respectively.
The analysis covers the period from 1958 to 2022. That both distributions
peak at zero means that in most cases the 87.5th percentile warms at the
same rate as the 99th percentile (which can result from a particular
choice of the percentile values).</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">The
figure above shows that models greatly underestimate both the cases where
extreme temperatures rise faster than an average summer day and the cases
where they rise more slowly (that is, where extreme trends are buffered
relative to the mean trend). Instead, the models tend to produce more
locations where mean and extreme temperatures increase at similar
rates.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>So
what could be the reason? </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/fe6a327a-fa8a-4702-b143-edfd7fa6a2f0?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Kornhuber et al. 2024</A><SPAN> point to several
factors, with an explicit mention of the hydrological cycle and
vegetation:</SPAN></P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ff6719 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I><SPAN>Simpson
et al. (</SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/b806d1e6-1d90-41b3-a2d0-b88617c26683?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>40</A><SPAN>) found that trends in humidity, which
are strongly dependent on the accurate depiction of rainfall patterns
(</SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/135ed27a-8f77-450a-9ce4-25ea0c5f1e06?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>38</A><SPAN>), evaporation (which is partially
controlled by vegetation), and hydrological characteristics of the land
surface, including vegetation are still not accurately reproduced, which
could in part explain the discrepancies reported
here.</SPAN></I></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Nevertheless,
the overall conclusion, announced as usual already in the abstract (see
“</SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/e4bd14c7-1014-45f6-a7ed-249e0d6e9e48?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Why it is important to read scientific papers beyond
their abstracts</A><SPAN>”), is</SPAN></P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ff6719 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I>Our
results highlight the need to better understand and model the drivers of
extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid
further harm from unexpected weather events.</I></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Natural
ecosystems as a temperature buffer</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
buffering effect of ecosystems on temperature is tied to how they handle
water — both locally through transpiration and at larger scales through
the regulation of atmospheric moisture transport (the biotic pump). Yet
</SPAN><I>water</I><SPAN> seems to be a prohibited word when discussing
the reciprocal links between climate and biodiversity.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>For
example, in the recently released </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/5c850920-7a3f-4da6-9acf-a81ba631a82b?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>10 New Climate Insights for 2025–2026</A><SPAN>,
Insight 4 acknowledges the </SPAN><I>inter</I><SPAN>dependence between
climate change and biodiversity loss, using formulations like
</SPAN><I>“growing evidence suggests that further loss of biodiversity can
contribute to climate change, creating a destabilising
feedback.”</I><SPAN> (Consider that a quarter into the 21st century, this
is still presented as a new insight.) However, the supporting text is
entirely about carbon, with no mention of the W-word. It almost looks as
if the researchers are afraid to walk on the liquid-water surface,
preferring the solid carbon ground. Or is it a taboo waiting to be
released, in the algorithm that is ruling the process? Yet without
embracing how ecosystems move water, there is not the slightest hope of
understanding Earth’s climate stability.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">There
is another hidden caveat in the biodiversity–climate narrative. If
biodiversity is understood simply as the number of species in a given
area, that number alone does not characterize an ecosystem’s functionality
or resilience. For example, early-successional habitats can maximize
species counts, yet, being focused on self-recovery, they have limited
capacity to regulate regional climatic conditions such as moisture
transport. As a result, creating many early-successional habitats may
temporarily boost local species numbers but weaken the forest’s overall
ability to regulate climate and, hence, its own well-being. </P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>How
much space the early successional habitats (</SPAN><I>that are also home
to large animals whom humans like to hunt, hence, for example, widespread
complaints of German hunters that forest owners do not cut enough
trees</I><SPAN>) occupy in a healthy forest has been determined by
evolution from the condition of maximising the forest climate-regulating
capacity rather than the number of species at each point. This
climate-regulating function is rarely considered in biodiversity
narratives weakening the appeal for conservation or even promotes policies
that harm forest resilience (see “</SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/e2c7e1fd-e4ec-43b0-894c-61e2c6eff504?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Forest-clearing to create early-successional
habitats: Questionable benefits, significant costs</A><SPAN>”).</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Returning
to vegetation, water and temperature, destroying ecosystems leads to
destabilization of the temperature regime, while their recovery helps
buffer global temperature trends.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/dd49f34c-59ab-41fe-bc8a-f41ea2c04806?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Baker and Spracklen 2019</A><SPAN> compared
temperature changes that occurred from 2000 to 2013 in nearby locations
with intact Amazonian forest and with slight (non-intact), moderate, and
severe disturbance. They found, as shown in the third histogram below,
that severely disturbed forests warmed by almost an order of magnitude
more than undisturbed forests.</SPAN></P>
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<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
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href="https://substack.com/redirect/57fc7522-16fe-4bbb-afce-855a6dc0a45e?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
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alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!A61I!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccf024ff-49f8-4d66-8a6d-9a6c654b7416_1625x941.png"
width=550 height=318></A></TD>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Compare
this to how global climate models handle temperature changes related to
the removal of vegetation. Below is Fig. 7 from </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/f487fae7-8df6-4836-bdf9-5f19d472a053?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Lejene et al. 2017</A><SPAN>, which shows how models
(LUCID and CMIP5) represent changes in maximum and minimum daily
temperatures following vegetation removal. OBS refers to the observed
differences in Tmax and Tmin between open land and forest, averaged over
22 paired sites in North America. We can see that the models do not
reproduce even the sign of the effect.</SPAN></P>
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href="https://substack.com/redirect/99cebbc5-2c4d-49a6-b950-24e5d6f3e1b8?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0507!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb90af13-355f-43dc-a07a-1e03ea3c9ab4_1024x808.jpeg"
width=550 height=433></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">While
vegetation clearing increases temperature extremes, the natural regrowth
of forests can literally buffer a large region against global trends. This
is what happened with the natural recovery of forests in the Eastern
United States.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Below
is Figure 1 from </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/16708c8c-281c-4d81-9f37-3cae21ce413b?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Barnes et al. 2024</A><SPAN>,“A Century of
Reforestation Reduced Anthropogenic Warming in the Eastern United States”,
where panel C shows the temperature trends in 1900-2010. One can see the
“warming hole” in the East, with the region cooling when other regions
were warming.</SPAN></P>
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href="https://substack.com/redirect/5ce8977f-2041-4347-ac69-b232d6c973f8?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!j2DA!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9131f00e-1511-452e-844f-077f9c8aa264_2128x1344.jpeg"
width=550 height=347></A></TD>
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<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">This
process cannot continue forever, since transpiration cannot increase
without limit. However, with large-scale forest recovery, regional
hydrology becomes more stable. </P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Of
course, now that forest biomass has increased, local businesses may want
to profit from the accumulated natural capital and return the landscape to
a depauperate state (see the right bottom panel above), through measures
such as the “Fix Our Forests Act,” which opens forests to logging and
burning. </P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">This
is the curse of resource abundance. When a resource is abundant,
destroying is always cheaper than protecting. Once nothing is left, the
recoverers arrive to rebuild the resource for the future destroyers.
Stopping this vicious cycle requires intellect and will from human
society.</P>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">The
bigger influence</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">While
the above temperature-related examples that show the role of vegetation
are very vivid and often used in ecorestoration narratives, they are
really only the tip of the iceberg. The main weather extremes come from
changes in atmospheric circulation. </P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">To
understand why this is so, let us look at this picture of forest mediated
ocean to land moisture transport.</P>
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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
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href="https://substack.com/redirect/f9ebc728-6909-49d7-adec-2eeec25db088?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r3_7!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0fc13686-b2b2-4886-8d28-fba51f6044d4_624x634.jpeg"
width=550 height=558></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>When
the biotic pump works normally, moist air rises over the continent. Rain
and clouds help cool the land surface. Meanwhile, over the ocean, where
the air descends, there are no clouds and there is full sunshine. The area
of descent warms. In the Amazon region, this creates what Antonio Nobre
called the </SPAN><I>cold Amazon paradox</I><SPAN>, in which the air rises
over the colder land surface and descends over the warmer ocean surface,
something you do not see in textbooks.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Now
imagine that we disturb the forest by burning and logging, such that its
hydrological power weakens. Since the ocean never has a shortage of water,
the circulation pattern readily flips, and now there is descending air
motion over the Amazon. This descending air motion, persistent as it was
in 2023, caused extra heat due to </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/21e5ea16-6a33-4c95-848a-0a86349bfdd5?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>less clouds and more sunshine</A><SPAN> as well as
because air warms rapidly as it descends adiabatically (</SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/e8545017-9d64-4041-9e7a-717d3cc5f624?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Fernández-Alvarez et al. 2025</A><SPAN>).</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Let
me digress from ecology for a moment and suggest that you pause to
memorize this important fact. I bet most readers have been taught, or have
heard, that warm air </SPAN><I>rises</I><SPAN>. Yet the strongest
heatwaves and the highest temperature extremes are associated with
persistent </SPAN><I>descending</I><SPAN> air. This is not only what
happened in the Amazon in 2023; you can read about other similar events
for example in the study by </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/23d19617-08b8-468b-afba-7e59431800fc?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Hotz et al. 2024</A><SPAN>.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Since
it is mechanically costly to push warm air downward, this means that the
work that makes it possible is done somewhere else, namely where
condensation occurs and rain falls. It is the atmospheric steam engine
that produces the power needed to push warm air down, a topic for another
post.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Therefore,
disturbing vegetation, especially on a large scale, disrupts transpiration
and atmospheric moistening and can lead to a situation in which the ocean
wins </SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/713592a1-5768-4e36-a6b7-c141da277d91?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>the tug of war with land for moisture</A><SPAN>,
causing positive temperature anomalies on land.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Furthermore,
natural forests not only facilitate ocean to land moisture import, but
they also </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/ee0158cc-91d0-4d88-be70-1582896df322?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>make it more stable</A><SPAN> by not allowing local
condensation bursts. Forest trees can be compared to control rods in a
nuclear reactor that protect the plant from explosion and ensure the
peaceful use of enormous nuclear power. Likewise, forests tame the power
of condensation, unlike hurricanes, which are more comparable to nuclear
bombs than to power stations. When their control lessens, or is
nonexistent, persistent local condensation wetspots can form, locking the
atmosphere in this state for a prolonged period of time. This creates
floods in one place and droughts and heatwaves in another.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>When
admitting that climate science is on uncharted territory, it was </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/3f672999-f55d-4767-a324-e03b24c8130d?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>suggested</A><SPAN> that the cause of unpredicted
changes is the long-term correlations in atmospheric and oceanic currents.
These changes, and the role of vegetation in them, are not adequately
described by climate models. </SPAN></P>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Fighting
climate change</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Now,
if we are concerned about weather extremes, as the people at the World
Economic Forum clearly are, reducing CO₂ levels does not seem to be a
straightforward way to reduce these extremes, since they are not
reproduced by climate models that describe CO₂-driven climate change.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Furthermore,
while we still do not understand how air circulation changes, </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/397a1c20-9037-4cad-b652-a95163459ff0?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>applying geoengineering methods to cool the
planet</A><SPAN>, for example by spreading aerosols, is unlikely to bring
about the desired climate stabilization. For air circulation, what matters
are temperature and humidity gradients and their temporal evolution, and
these depend on circulation itself. Even from a mechanical point of view,
aerosol-based cooling might help lower the global mean temperature, but in
theory it can lead to an even more destabilized circulation and more
chaotic weather patterns. Adding aerosols is not thermodynamically
equivalent to removing CO₂ or restoring disappearing cloud
cover.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Let
me conclude with an example that I think is also very vivid. Suppose we
continue weakening the biotic pump on land by destroying more and more
forests. At the same time, ocean temperatures rise, and the amount of
water vapor over the ocean increases as a result. Therefore, even if the
land to ocean circulation weakens, this additional water vapor can
partially compensate for the declining power of the biotic pump.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Now
suppose geoengineers succeed in reducing the global mean surface
temperature. What happens then? Forests and ocean-to-land moisture
transport continue to decline under human pressure, but now there is less
water vapor in the air. In this situation, we can reasonably expect even
more drastic disruptions of the water cycle across the planet.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Let
us stand up for our ecosystems and their complexity, and refuse to slide
into the ecological illiteracy and one-dimensional thinking that our
degrading environments can easily breed in us.</P>
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<P></P>-- <BR>Вы получили это сообщение, поскольку подписаны на
группу "seu-international".<BR></DIV>
<DIV class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><FONT size=2
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<DIV class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><FONT size=2 face=Arial>
<DIV>From: <B dir=auto class=gmail_sendername>Svet Zabelin</B> <SPAN
dir=auto><<A
href="mailto:svetfrog@gmail.com">svetfrog@gmail.com</A>></SPAN><BR>Date: пт,
21 нояб. 2025 г. в 18:19<BR>Subject: Fwd: Ecosystem Collapse and Extreme Weather
Events — in That Order<BR></DIV>
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