<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META name=GENERATOR content="MSHTML 8.00.6001.23588">
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV dir=ltr>
<DIV class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><FONT size=2
face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container">
<DIV dir=ltr><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Принцип
прост:<BR>В трудные времена старайтесь сокращать, а не увеличивать то, что вы
получаете от лесов.<BR>Их выносливость зависит от нас самих.</P></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>
<DIV dir=ltr class=gmail_attr><BR>От: <B dir=auto
class=gmail_sendername>Anastassia Makarieva</B> <SPAN dir=auto><<A
href="mailto:bioticregulation@substack.com"
target=_blank>bioticregulation@substack.com</A>></SPAN><BR>Date: пт, 31 окт.
2025 г. в 20:59<BR>Subject: The Rabbit–Duck Illusion in Climate Messaging: An
Example from Wildfire Policy<BR>To: <<A href="mailto:svetfrog@gmail.com"
target=_blank>svetfrog@gmail.com</A>><BR></DIV><BR><BR>
<DIV style="font-kerning: auto"><IMG
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px !important; BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px !important; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px !important; WIDTH: 1px !important; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px !important; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px !important; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px !important; HEIGHT: 1px !important; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px !important; PADDING-TOP: 0px !important"
border=0 alt=""
src="https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjUxMDMxMTc1ODU5LjMuOGQ4ZWEyNTVlNTg4MTUyMEBtZy1kMS5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20-IiwidSI6MTU4MDA1ODc0LCJyIjoic3ZldGZyb2dAZ21haWwuY29tIiwiZCI6Im1nLWQxLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbSIsInAiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwidCI6Im5ld3NsZXR0ZXIiLCJhIjoiZXZlcnlvbmUiLCJzIjozMjM0OTI2LCJjIjoicG9zdCIsImYiOnRydWUsInBvc2l0aW9uIjoidG9wIiwiaWF0IjoxNzYxOTMzNTQ0LCJleHAiOjE3NjQ1MjU1NDQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0wIiwic3ViIjoiZW8ifQ.pt5IjFfoNEenGHxuAwwg0Kik9FJmJQW5pqnMrtN2_Cg"
width=1 height=1>
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1px; DISPLAY: none; MAX-WIDTH: 0px; COLOR: #333333; MAX-HEIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 1px; OVERFLOW: hidden; opacity: 0">If
you’re only seeing the rabbit, let me show you the duck. When fires are viewed
through the lens of fundamental ecological laws, a very different picture
emerges.</DIV>
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1px; DISPLAY: none; MAX-WIDTH: 0px; COLOR: #333333; MAX-HEIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 1px; OVERFLOW: hidden; opacity: 0">͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
</DIV>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD></TD>
<TD width=550></TD>
<TD></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD></TD>
<TD width=550 align=left>
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: 100%; MAX-WIDTH: 550px; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="HEIGHT: 20px" align=right>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle"><SPAN
style="LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: SF Pro Text,-apple-system,system-ui,BlinkMacSystemFont,Inter,Segoe UI,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,Apple Color Emoji,Segoe UI Emoji,Segoe UI Symbol; FONT-SIZE: 13px">
<DIV
style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 16px; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 12px"><SPAN
style="LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px">Forwarded this
email? <A
style="LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9iaW90aWNyZWd1bGF0aW9uLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249ZW1haWwtc3Vic2NyaWJlJnI9Mm0ybTQyJm5leHQ9aHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZiaW90aWNyZWd1bGF0aW9uLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbSUyRnAlMkZ0aGUtcmFiYml0ZHVjay1pbGx1c2lvbi1pbi1jbGltYXRlIiwicCI6MTc3NTQxODUyLCJzIjozMjM0OTI2LCJmIjp0cnVlLCJ1IjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsImlhdCI6MTc2MTkzMzU0MywiZXhwIjoyMDc3NTA5NTQzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImxpbmstcmVkaXJlY3QifQ.lPgFT91UwE4svMiK4s56EDHcXRE6Au_LFtnV2RA9IVg?"
target=_blank>Subscribe here</A> for
more</SPAN></DIV></SPAN></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<DIV
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 32px"
dir=auto>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; FONT-SIZE: 16px" role=region
aria-label="Post header">
<H1
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 36px; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 32px; FONT-WEIGHT: bold"
dir=auto><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3234926&post_id=177541852&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2m2m42&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwiaWF0IjoxNzYxOTMzNTQzLCJleHAiOjE3NjQ1MjU1NDMsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zMjM0OTI2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.LHEOrtM9KHspnY_emoFn2mHQtMR6Vp5hUWtTPdMvfMw"
target=_blank>The Rabbit–Duck Illusion in Climate Messaging: An Example
from Wildfire Policy</A></H1>
<H3
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 24px; MARGIN: 12px 0px 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: #777777; FONT-SIZE: 18px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal"
dir=auto>If you’re only seeing the rabbit, let me show you the duck. When
fires are viewed through the lens of fundamental ecological laws, a very
different picture emerges.</H3>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 1em 0px; HEIGHT: 20px" role=presentation border=0
cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; LETTER-SPACING: 0px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 11px; FONT-WEIGHT: 500"><A
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; LETTER-SPACING: 0px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 11px; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="https://substack.com/@anastassiamakarieva"
target=_blank>Anastassia
Makarieva</A></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Compact',-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; LETTER-SPACING: 0px; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 11px; FONT-WEIGHT: 500">Oct
31</DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD align=right>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle"><A
href="https://substack.com/@anastassiamakarieva"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; MIN-WIDTH: 40px; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px; MIN-HEIGHT: 40px; WIDTH: 40px; DISPLAY: inline; MAX-WIDTH: 550px; HEIGHT: 40px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; border-radius: 500000px; object-fit: cover"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zJWS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63df86fc-c381-4c8d-99bc-34b87ba1ee22_144x144.png"
width=40
height=40></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; MIN-WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid"
role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR height=16>
<TD style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0; FONT-SIZE: 0px" height=16> </TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=38>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; MIN-WIDTH: 38px; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 38px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3234926&post_id=177541852&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=true&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwicmVhY3Rpb24iOiLinaQiLCJpYXQiOjE3NjE5MzM1NDMsImV4cCI6MTc2NDUyNTU0MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTMyMzQ5MjYiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.YQ2KKT94ctcAAdByKQgl8fPvVPqblWwITLB4oBuz-AQ&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=2m2m42"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PeVs!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideHeart%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18 height=18></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD style="MIN-WIDTH: 8px" width=8></TD>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=38>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; MIN-WIDTH: 38px; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 38px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3234926&post_id=177541852&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwiaWF0IjoxNzYxOTMzNTQzLCJleHAiOjE3NjQ1MjU1NDMsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zMjM0OTI2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.LHEOrtM9KHspnY_emoFn2mHQtMR6Vp5hUWtTPdMvfMw&r=2m2m42&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x1tS!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideComments%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18 height=18></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD style="MIN-WIDTH: 8px" width=8></TD>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=38>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; MIN-WIDTH: 38px; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 38px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3234926&post_id=177541852&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=2m2m42&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwiaWF0IjoxNzYxOTMzNTQzLCJleHAiOjE3NjQ1MjU1NDMsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zMjM0OTI2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.LHEOrtM9KHspnY_emoFn2mHQtMR6Vp5hUWtTPdMvfMw"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_L14!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideShare2%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18 height=18></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD style="MIN-WIDTH: 8px" width=8></TD>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=38>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; MIN-WIDTH: 38px; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 38px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9vcGVuLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9wdWIvYmlvdGljcmVndWxhdGlvbi9wL3RoZS1yYWJiaXRkdWNrLWlsbHVzaW9uLWluLWNsaW1hdGU_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.tywcBzAL-Jm7jXcwoubISR_6LHLwIyZnDpq9SxEV5oM?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5EGt!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FNoteForwardIcon%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18
height=18></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD align=right>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 12px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 14px; PADDING-RIGHT: 14px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://open.substack.com/pub/bioticregulation/p/the-rabbitduck-illusion-in-climate?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app"
target=_blank>
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MIN-HEIGHT: 18px; DISPLAY: inline-block; MAX-WIDTH: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle"></DIV><SPAN
style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; MARGIN-RIGHT: 4px">READ
IN APP</SPAN><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; MIN-WIDTH: 18px; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MIN-HEIGHT: 18px; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; MARGIN-LEFT: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ET-_!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideArrowUpRight%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18
height=18></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
<TR height=16>
<TD style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0; FONT-SIZE: 0px"
height=16> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV></DIV>
<DIV
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 32px"
dir=auto>
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; WIDTH: 100%; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 16px; FONT-SIZE: 16px"
dir=auto>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px auto 32px; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=650 align=left><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: auto; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: auto; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/76945855-3b38-4f0d-9423-8ee3fa49ed1b?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o8fp!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12d5c0a3-b9bb-4c31-9aec-d8b2f19c93b6_650x487.jpeg"
width=550 height=412></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
</SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/43cf9ce7-081a-4ce5-a45c-848a5a97debb?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>rabbit–duck illusion</A><SPAN> (known since at least
1892) is an image that can be seen as either animal, depending on how one
looks at it.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">But
to experience the illusion, one must know both animals. If someone knows
only the rabbit, for instance, they will never see the duck. To them, the
picture will appear entirely unambiguous and consistent.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Equally
unambiguous and consistent sounds the recent public </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/c2ddd065-0e4c-4bfe-8865-1ec9c87c94ee?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>summary</A><SPAN> of the 112-page report
</SPAN><I>“State of Wildfires 2024–2025.”</I><SPAN> Below, I list the most
relevant excerpts from that summary, with my emphasis:</SPAN></P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ff6719 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">CLIMATE
CHANGE DRIVING MORE INTENSE WILDFIRES, REPORT WARNS</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Severe
heatwaves and droughts linked to human-driven climate change are making
extreme wildfires increasingly frequent and destructive worldwide,
according to the </SPAN><I>State of Wildfires 2024–25</I><SPAN> report,
co-led by ECMWF, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, the UK Met
Office and the University of East Anglia.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/8a43fc95-c50a-4117-ab8f-0740de01ab67?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Published</A><SPAN> in </SPAN><I>Earth System
Science Data</I><SPAN>, the annual assessment provides mounting evidence
that global warming is amplifying wildfire risk, with advanced satellite
observations and modeling revealing that fires are now larger, longer
lasting and more polluting than ever. …</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">In
Southern California, January’s Los Angeles wildfires were estimated to
be twice as likely and 25 times larger in today’s warmer climate than in
a pre-industrial world. …</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Report
co-lead Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe of ECMWF explained, </SPAN><I>“Climate
change is not only creating more dangerous fire-prone weather
conditions, but it is also influencing the rates at which vegetation
grows and provides fuel for the fires to spread.</I></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I><SPAN>“Our
analyses detected the critical role of both extreme weather and fuel in
the Los Angeles fires, with unusually wet weather in the preceding 30
months contributing to </SPAN><B>strong vegetation growth</B><SPAN> and
laying the perfect foundations for wildfires to occur when unusually hot
and dry conditions arrived in January.” </SPAN></I><SPAN>…</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
report warns that without rapid global emissions cuts and
</SPAN><B>improved land and fire management</B><SPAN>, extreme wildfire
seasons like 2024–25 could become routine by century’s end.
</SPAN><B>Land and fire management policies and practices can also help
to mitigate damage.</B></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Report
co-lead Dr Matt Jones of the University of East Anglia said,
</SPAN><I><SPAN>“We urge world leaders at COP30 to make bold commitments
to cut greenhouse gas emissions rapidly this decade. </SPAN><B>This is
the single most powerful contribution</B><SPAN> that most developed
nations can make to avoiding the worst impacts of extreme wildfires on
living and future generations.”</SPAN></I></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">It
is a familiar narrative: excessive atmospheric carbon leads to more fires,
with the usual, inconsequential nod to land-use policy.</P>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Is
a radically distinct perspective justifiable?</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Before
turning to the alternative, it is worth emphasizing once again that
land-use issues are indeed marginalized in climate reporting (I recommend
Rob Lewis’s </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/d45fa50c-8562-4646-b12b-d0471405c1a6?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>series</A><SPAN> on how land use came to be
marginalized). Yet in this case, marginalization is not the whole
story.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>From
the account above, one can gather that, according to the scientific
report, additional plant growth provides more fuel that later facilitates
fires — with Southern California given as an example. In the current U.S.
context, this reinforces the notion that such “extra fuel” must be
eliminated through land-management practices such as preventive burning,
which has been </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1b6c543b-9d36-436e-999a-57a58c73156b?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>widely promoted</A><SPAN> in California.</SPAN></P>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=993 align=left><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: auto; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: auto; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/73c773c2-bd08-4ef0-bb25-a335bdce5915?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wl1z!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a84a73d-ea35-4990-8ca7-cf901172b29d_993x665.png"
width=550 height=368></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I>“This
beautiful, dense carpet of old-growth chaparral on the slopes of Santa
Rosa Mountain in the San Bernardino National Chaparral (Forest) Preserve
was scheduled for clearance and burning by the US Forest Service. We
stopped them.”</I><SPAN> — </SPAN><I><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/5ff1a661-3295-46c8-99e5-5910025bb2b4?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>California Chaparral Institute</A></I></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>However,
in line with the ideas that I shared in </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/ae585361-e490-425b-b8f8-cac0cdfa548b?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><SPAN>“Why it is important to read scientific papers
beyond their abstracts, especially when it is about the role of
CO</SPAN><SUB style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0; FONT-SIZE: 0.75em">2</SUB><SPAN> in
climate”</SPAN></A><SPAN>, the report itself implies something very
different. First of all, already the abstract states that</SPAN></P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ff6719 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>In
Southern California, the future trajectory of extreme fire likelihood
remains </SPAN><B>highly uncertain due to poorly constrained
climate–vegetation–fire interactions influencing fuel
moisture</B><SPAN>, though our models suggest that </SPAN><B>risk may
decline in future</B><SPAN>.</SPAN></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">That
is to say, although global warming has allegedly doubled fire frequency in
Southern California, further warming will not lead to more fires. How
could that be? </P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">The
report clarifies that</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ff6719 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>simulations
suggest that increased tree cover </SPAN><B><SPAN>driven by
CO</SPAN><SUB style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0; FONT-SIZE: 0.75em">2</SUB><SPAN>
fertilisation</SPAN></B><SPAN> under higher emissions scenarios (SSP585
and SSP370) may raise </SPAN><B>fuel loads while simultaneously
increasing fuel moisture</B><SPAN>, with the overall effect being to
</SPAN><B>reduce the likelihood of extreme fire events in our
models</B><SPAN>.</SPAN></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Again,
compare this to what we read in the summary:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ff6719 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>…unusually
wet weather in the preceding 30 months contributing to </SPAN><B>strong
vegetation growth</B><SPAN> and laying the perfect foundations for
wildfires to occur when unusually hot and dry conditions
arrived…</SPAN></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">At
this point, the reader has every right to be confused. After all, is more
vegetation in California good or bad for fire prevention?</P>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Understanding
Ecological Succession</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">To
truly see the full picture, we must consider the laws of wild nature —
something almost entirely foreign to our urban civilization.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>When
an ecosystem is disturbed — but not yet murdered — it does not descend
into chaos. It enters a deliberate sequence known as </SPAN><I>ecological
succession</I><SPAN> — the ecosystem’s own process of healing and
rebuilding itself, along with its environment and climate. Ignorance of
this order is not merely academic; it distorts how we perceive our
predicament and the very strategies by which we attempt to live within
it.</SPAN></P>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=620 align=left><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: auto; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: auto; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/1e846f28-eeeb-4e4d-b4fe-9a4740d24bc6?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1otB!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F34e82115-9484-493d-8670-36b62f5dfbf6_620x375.png"
width=550 height=332></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I><SPAN>An
example of ecological succession. </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/0908db03-5401-4d90-a8bc-e4fd4e25bb73?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Image source</A></I></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">The
image above shows ecological succession in a forest ecosystem. This
recovery process is unique to each ecosystem, yet follows some general
patterns. For our discussion today, what matters most is that </P>
<DIV
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #e6e6e6 1px solid; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-TOP: #e6e6e6 1px solid">
<P
style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 32px 0px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px; FONT-WEIGHT: 500"><B>different
stages of succession have different flammability.</B></P></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Immediately
after a severe disturbance, such as a fire, little biomass remains and
flammability is naturally low. This initial stage is dominated, on the
plant side, by lichens, mosses, and herbs. Then, as the ecosystem strives
to regain its biological power, shrubs and early-successional trees begin
to appear. As succession advances, the so-called climax species
re-establish, forming a gap mosaic of young and old trees that can persist
on time scales far exceeding the lifespan of any individual tree. This is
effective immortality.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Flammability
depends on the ecosystem’s capacity to store moisture and regulate the
water cycle — including through the </SPAN><I>biotic pump</I><SPAN>
mechanism. At the early stages of succession, the priority is to rebuild
biomass, while the ecosystem’s environmental control temporarily weakens.
A fitting analogy is that of a sick person on leave: not yet contributing
to society, but devoting energy to recovery. Once health is restored, the
ability to perform useful work — or, in nature’s case, to regulate climate
— is regained at full strength.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">Now
an important point: just as a sick person is temporarily supported by the
rest of society, a healing ecosystem depends on the environmental
stability maintained by the biota of the surrounding intact areas. As long
as the disturbed zone remains relatively small — as it naturally tends to
be — the larger region retains its overall regulatory power, allowing the
damaged area to recover safely within the protective framework of the
whole.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
inference is clear: when we humans disturb ecosystems </SPAN><B>on a large
scale</B><SPAN>, their recovery inevitably passes through a stage of
heightened flammability. But unlike in natural settings, there is no
surrounding biotic support to stabilize the environment in a moist state —
the devastation is too vast. If, in our ecological ignorance, we continue
to interfere at this vulnerable stage — reducing “fuel” through logging,
burning, pesticides, and the rest of our ingenuity — </SPAN></P>
<DIV
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #e6e6e6 1px solid; TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-TOP: #e6e6e6 1px solid">
<P
style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 32px 0px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px; FONT-WEIGHT: 500"><B>we
trap the system in a state of maximum flammability.</B><SPAN>
</SPAN></P></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">For
as long as it remains alive, the ecosystem will strive to move beyond this
phase of ecological succession toward the water-competent,
climate-stabilizing climax state — yet our actions keep it perpetually
sick.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>If,
on the other hand, we open our minds to the fundamental laws of ecology
and protect the recovering ecosystem — as the surrounding intact biota
would naturally do — from additional fires during its delicate, vulnerable
stage, we will be rewarded. The result will be a resilient,
water-competent native ecosystem with maximum moisture-storage capacity,
an efficient </SPAN><I>biotic pump</I><SPAN> mechanism, and flammability
reduced to its naturally low level.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
</SPAN><I>State of Wildfires 2024–25</I><SPAN> report never mentions
ecological succession.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Having
outlined this conceptual sketch, in the next sections I will turn to
supporting evidence and explore its implications for the global climate
narrative — to </SPAN><I>see the duck</I><SPAN>.</SPAN></P>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Landscape
trap</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
image below summarizes the multi-year research of Professor Lindenmayer
and colleagues in Australian forests. It illustrates both </SPAN><I>the
rabbit and the duck</I><SPAN> — the interplay of changing climate and
human pressure.</SPAN></P>
<UL
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<LI style="MARGIN: 8px 0px 0px 32px">
<P
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 4px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>A
key point in the figure is that early-successional, young forests
exhibit higher flammability than native old-growth stands, despite the
latter’s greater biomass. This aligns with results from North American
forests, where protected areas — with no fuel removal or prescribed
burning — were found to burn less severely than “managed” stands
subjected to preventive burning (</SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/a273175c-b398-4bff-8676-4813b86e349e?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Bradley et al. 2016</A><SPAN>).</SPAN></P></LI></UL>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=1395 align=left><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: auto; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: auto; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/83350e76-5d3b-48b8-99d1-d4297a4344d3?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!69N_!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edbfb9d-4914-470c-9ff3-03954d093ec7_1395x814.webp"
width=550 height=320></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I><SPAN>Figure
1 from </SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/b9af6789-b7e2-4ec0-a7a5-abd1dc2501c7?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Lindenmayer et al. 2022</A><SPAN> describes how
increased human pressure can lead to ecosystem collapse — a “landscape
trap”</SPAN></I></P>
<UL
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<LI style="MARGIN: 8px 0px 0px 32px">
<P
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 4px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Another
key point is the mention of the </SPAN><I>extensive</I><SPAN> old-growth
forest (left panel) being replaced by an equally extensive, highly
flammable young stand (right panel). While old-growth forest ensures
environmental stability and supports the safe and rapid recovery of
small burned patches, this regulation breaks down when the entire
landscape is disturbed.</SPAN></P>
<LI style="MARGIN: 8px 0px 0px 32px">
<P
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 4px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">The
left panel shows that without human disturbance, even under novel
climatic conditions associated with global warming, the forest — though
experiencing high-severity fires — retains its ecological integrity and
spends only a brief period in the highly flammable stage, thanks to
rapid natural regeneration. In contrast, the right panel illustrates
that with human disturbance, the forest remains trapped in a highly
flammable state, unable to complete succession, until it eventually
degrades beyond recovery.</P></LI></UL>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Not
only flammability, but also drought resilience declines with increasing
anthropogenic disturbance. The figure below, from the global analysis by
</SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7796a3b0-fa85-4238-8ad8-0aa1676b0b08?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Xiao et al. 2023</A><SPAN>, shows an inverse
relationship between human pressure and ecosystem resistance to drought
stress (higher values indicate a more resilient system).</SPAN></P>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=1456 align=left><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: auto; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: auto; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/e717addc-082c-49d2-b20f-147fd86b50e5?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9033!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F91aec4dc-92b4-4510-a35f-823f8c3eb76f_2067x1484.png"
width=550 height=394></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Primary
forests are more resilient to drought than secondary forests, older
forests are more resilient than young stands, and heavily harvested
forests tend to be less resilient than unharvested ones. Local studies
confirm that primary, undisturbed forests are more resilient to drought
than secondary forests (e.g., </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/9a315a53-87dc-45f0-951a-7bbd0129f27a?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Wolf et al. 2023</A><SPAN>).</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Since
about 90% of major forest fires in the U.S. are human-caused, there is
enormous potential to reduce wildfire damage simply by working with
people. Achieving </SPAN><B>zero ignitions</B><SPAN> may, in fact, be
easier than cutting fossil fuel use by 100% to reach </SPAN><B>zero
emissions</B><SPAN>.</SPAN></P>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=974 align=left><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: auto; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: auto; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/25129dd3-1022-407a-8d66-aa7186637d71?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H_ig!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcda74fb9-3908-46ee-a833-9f05ca8f15ac_974x380.jpeg"
width=550 height=214></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Left
image: </SPAN><A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/cf4ce640-95d6-43fa-b460-fed451fe8866?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Nagy et al. 2018</A><SPAN>. Right image:
</SPAN><I><SPAN>The big tree was killed by a fire from an
</SPAN><B>anthropogenic ignition</B><SPAN>, but the surrounding forest in
the Clearwater Country in north-central Idaho is alive — thanks largely to
the efforts of </SPAN><B><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/902ba537-fd31-4820-9463-595f0127fcea?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Professor </A></B><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/902ba537-fd31-4820-9463-595f0127fcea?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Chuck Pezeshki and his colleagues</A><SPAN> back then
in the 1990s</SPAN></I></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Finally,
let’s not forget the global trend: </SPAN><B>primary ecosystems are
increasingly being replaced by secondary ones</B><SPAN> — effectively
pushing the world’s biota backward along the </SPAN><B>successional
axis</B><SPAN>, toward greater vulnerability and reduced resilience,
figure from </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/47597168-176b-41f8-8e7a-6c5a6924f781?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>Makarieva et al. 2023</A><SPAN>):</SPAN></P>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px auto; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=624 align=left><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: auto; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: auto; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/85907940-ee3a-4e90-82f9-73fc8ca1fe9f?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: auto !important; DISPLAY: block; MAX-WIDTH: 100% !important; HEIGHT: auto; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
title="" alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AjBy!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc7a68e9e-87da-45a6-9022-810b4309affc_624x581.jpeg"
width=550 height=512></A></TD>
<TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><I><SPAN>During
the industrial era, CO</SPAN><SUB
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0; FONT-SIZE: 0.75em">2</SUB><SPAN> concentration has
grown, and primary ecosystems have declined, by approximately one half. We
have been focused on carbon.</SPAN></I></P>
<H4
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 1.16em; MARGIN: 1em 0px 0.62em; FONT-FAMILY: 'SF Pro Display',-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 1.12em; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">The
Duck</H4>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">How
might a report and its summary look if our environmental thinking had
taken a different course — one that moved beyond carbon-centrism to focus
on life from the very beginning?</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">If
the evidence we have just discussed (and many other similar studies) were
not scattered randomly across the vast universe of scientific publishing,
but instead woven into a coherent, life-centered framework for studying
the living world of which we are a part, then perhaps the headlines we
read today would sound more like this:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ff6719 4px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 20px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">HUMAN
PRESSURE ON ECOSYSTEMS DRIVES MORE INTENSE WILDFIRES, REPORT WARNS</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">New
assessment links thinning and burning of recovering forests to rising
flammability, stalled succession, and global ecological decline.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Expanding
land use, logging, and repeated disturbance are keeping ecosystems in a
state of chronic recovery, and making them burn more easily, according
to the </SPAN><I>State of Ecosystem Resilience 2024–25</I><SPAN> report,
co-led by the </SPAN><B>Institute for Biotic Regulation</B><SPAN>, the
</SPAN><B>Centre for Wildland Recovery Research</B><SPAN>, and the
</SPAN><B>Aurora Institute for Living Systems</B><SPAN>.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Published
in </SPAN><I>Journal of Applied Ecological Literacy</I><SPAN>, the study
finds that </SPAN><B>human pressure</B><SPAN>, rather than temperature
alone, explains the growing intensity of modern wildfires. Drawing on
the concept of a </SPAN><B><SPAN>“</SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/b9af6789-b7e2-4ec0-a7a5-abd1dc2501c7?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>landscape trap</A><SPAN>,”</SPAN></B><SPAN> the
authors show that repeated clearing, fragmentation, and forest thinning
interrupt ecological succession, preventing ecosystems from reaching
mature, moisture-competent, climate-regulating stages.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Lead
author </SPAN><B>Dr Patricia Forrester</B><SPAN> explained, “When we
thin or ‘manage’ recovering forests through preventive burning, we
interrupt their own healing process. Young trees lose shade and
moisture, the soil dries, and the ecosystem becomes trapped in a
water-poor stage — the ecological equivalent of a patient kept
perpetually in rehab but never allowed to heal.”</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>Co-author
</SPAN><B>Prof Lin Shuiyuan</B><SPAN> added, “We believe we’re reducing
fuel, but in reality we’re dismantling the forest’s water engine,
weakening the ecosystem’s </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7796a3b0-fa85-4238-8ad8-0aa1676b0b08?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>drought resistance</A><SPAN>.” Co-author
</SPAN><B>Dr Sylvia Spruce</B><SPAN> agreed: “It’s not the planet that’s
combustible, it’s our management philosophy.”</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>The
authors warn that increasing human pressure is globally pushing the
biota toward </SPAN><B>earlier successional stages, </B><SPAN>where
natural flammability is higher and water regulation weaker. Over time,
this feedback can lead to </SPAN><B>regional drying and eventual
ecological collapse</B><SPAN>, even under moderate climate
stress.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>“Global
warming adds heat,” said report co-lead </SPAN><B>Prof Ignatius
Burne</B><SPAN>, “but the deeper issue is that we no longer let nature
reach maturity. We’ve built a world of ecosystems forever recovering —
and nothing can recover forever without breaking down.”</SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px">The
report concludes with a call for a paradigm shift in forest and land
management.</P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN>“We
urge policymakers and land stewards to adopt
</SPAN><B>zero-ignition</B><SPAN>,
</SPAN><B>zero-deforestation</B><SPAN>, and </SPAN><B><A
style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/7479030b-b043-4472-9439-9b9ec40f1895?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
rel="" target=_blank>proforestation</A></B><SPAN> strategies, minimizing
anthropogenic disturbance during recovery phases,” said </SPAN><B>Dr
Forrester</B><SPAN>. “Allowing natural succession and continuous forest
growth to reach their moisture-retentive, climax stages is </SPAN><B>the
most effective pathway</B><SPAN> to lowering flammability, restoring
hydrological regulation, and stabilizing regional
climates.”</SPAN></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 20px; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><B>The
principle is simple:</B><BR><SPAN>In difficult times, try to reduce —
rather than increase — what you take from the forests.</SPAN><BR><B>Their
endurance is our own.</B></P>
<DIV
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px; DIRECTION: ltr; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<DIV
style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-SIZE: 16px; border-radius: 4px"><A
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; TEXT-ALIGN: center; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ff6719; MARGIN: 0px auto; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 20px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-RIGHT: 20px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; WHITE-SPACE: nowrap; HEIGHT: auto; COLOR: #ffffff !important; FONT-SIZE: 14px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; FONT-WEIGHT: 600; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none !important; PADDING-TOP: 12px; opacity: 1; border-radius: 8px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9iaW90aWNyZWd1bGF0aW9uLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_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.EV8DjOSAQumhlHeEHF8yYWpEVhbBIOBCB0ABVAmLZFU?&utm_medium=email&utm_source=subscribe-widget&utm_content=177541852"
target=_blank><SPAN style="COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-DECORATION: none">Upgrade
to paid</SPAN></A></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px 0px 0px; WIDTH: 100%; FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-TOP: #e6e6e6 1px solid"></DIV>
<DIV style="LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 32px 0px; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<P
style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px auto 20px; WIDTH: 90%; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><SPAN
style="LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px">You're currently a free
subscriber to <A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/72737e3c-6f9a-44bc-85cd-faeb235fc203?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
target=_blank>Biotic Regulation and Biotic Pump</A>. For the full
experience, <A style="COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); TEXT-DECORATION: underline"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9iaW90aWNyZWd1bGF0aW9uLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_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.EV8DjOSAQumhlHeEHF8yYWpEVhbBIOBCB0ABVAmLZFU?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=postcta"
target=_blank>upgrade your subscription.</A></SPAN></P>
<P
style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; MARGIN: 0px auto; WIDTH: 90%; COLOR: rgb(54,55,55); FONT-SIZE: 16px"><A
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; TEXT-ALIGN: center; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px; LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ff6719; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 20px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-RIGHT: 20px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; WHITE-SPACE: nowrap; HEIGHT: 40px; COLOR: #ffffff !important; FONT-SIZE: 14px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; FONT-WEIGHT: 600; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; TEXT-DECORATION: none !important; PADDING-TOP: 10px; opacity: 1; border-radius: 8px"
role=button
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9iaW90aWNyZWd1bGF0aW9uLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_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.EV8DjOSAQumhlHeEHF8yYWpEVhbBIOBCB0ABVAmLZFU?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=postcta"
target=_blank>Upgrade to paid</A></P></DIV>
<TABLE
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; MIN-WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid"
role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR height=16>
<TD style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0; FONT-SIZE: 0px" height=16> </TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px auto" role=presentation border=0
cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 12px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 14px; PADDING-RIGHT: 14px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3234926&post_id=177541852&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=true&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwicmVhY3Rpb24iOiLinaQiLCJpYXQiOjE3NjE5MzM1NDMsImV4cCI6MTc2NDUyNTU0MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTMyMzQ5MjYiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.YQ2KKT94ctcAAdByKQgl8fPvVPqblWwITLB4oBuz-AQ&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=2m2m42"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; MIN-WIDTH: 18px; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MIN-HEIGHT: 18px; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; MARGIN-RIGHT: 8px; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PeVs!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideHeart%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18 height=18><SPAN
style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Like</SPAN></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD style="MIN-WIDTH: 8px" width=8></TD>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 12px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 14px; PADDING-RIGHT: 14px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3234926&post_id=177541852&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgwMDU4NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwiaWF0IjoxNzYxOTMzNTQzLCJleHAiOjE3NjQ1MjU1NDMsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zMjM0OTI2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.LHEOrtM9KHspnY_emoFn2mHQtMR6Vp5hUWtTPdMvfMw&r=2m2m42&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; MIN-WIDTH: 18px; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MIN-HEIGHT: 18px; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; MARGIN-RIGHT: 8px; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x1tS!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideComments%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18 height=18><SPAN
style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Comment</SPAN></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD style="MIN-WIDTH: 8px" width=8></TD>
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD align=middle><A
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 9px; LINE-HEIGHT: 12px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; PADDING-LEFT: 14px; PADDING-RIGHT: 14px; DISPLAY: inline-block; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: 500; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 9px; border-radius: 9999px"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9vcGVuLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9wdWIvYmlvdGljcmVndWxhdGlvbi9wL3RoZS1yYWJiaXRkdWNrLWlsbHVzaW9uLWluLWNsaW1hdGU_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.tywcBzAL-Jm7jXcwoubISR_6LHLwIyZnDpq9SxEV5oM?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; MIN-WIDTH: 18px; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MIN-HEIGHT: 18px; MAX-WIDTH: 18px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; MARGIN-RIGHT: 8px; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt=""
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5EGt!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FNoteForwardIcon%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2"
width=18 height=18><SPAN
style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Restack</SPAN></A></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
<TD align=right>
<TABLE role=presentation border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width=auto>
<TBODY>
<TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
<TR height=16>
<TD style="LINE-HEIGHT: 0; FONT-SIZE: 0px"
height=16> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<DIV
style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; PADDING-LEFT: 24px; PADDING-RIGHT: 24px; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 24px">
<DIV style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 24px; LINE-HEIGHT: 26px; FONT-SIZE: 16px">
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 16px; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px">©
2025 <SPAN>Anastassia Makarieva</SPAN><BR>548 Market Street PMB 72296, San
Francisco, CA 94104 <BR></P></DIV>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 20px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 24px; PADDING-RIGHT: 24px; FONT-FAMILY: system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,'Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol'; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); FONT-SIZE: 12px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><A
style="MARGIN: 0px 4px; DISPLAY: inline-block; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/3f2191cc-5795-431d-aa7b-139ae152f7d6?j=eyJ1IjoiMm0ybTQyIn0.YTQIGOi3aNYzFXNXjrWAb8aIFHsltcqoBPDDRfi_FMU"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MAX-WIDTH: 550px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt="Get the app"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IzGP!,w_262,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fimg%2Femail%2Fgeneric-app-button%402x.png"
width=131 height=40></A><A
style="MARGIN: 0px 4px; DISPLAY: inline-block; COLOR: rgb(119,119,119); TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vc2lnbnVwP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9c3Vic3RhY2smdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY29udGVudD1mb290ZXImdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPWF1dG9maWxsZWQtZm9vdGVyJmZyZWVTaWdudXBFbWFpbD1zdmV0ZnJvZ0BnbWFpbC5jb20mcj0ybTJtNDIiLCJwIjoxNzc1NDE4NTIsInMiOjMyMzQ5MjYsImYiOnRydWUsInUiOjE1ODAwNTg3NCwiaWF0IjoxNzYxOTMzNTQzLCJleHAiOjIwNzc1MDk1NDMsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0wIiwic3ViIjoibGluay1yZWRpcmVjdCJ9.RjBK_VO7jl2_502_1muySn8kz_xCJ8MPWJRK8-S2z5c?"
target=_blank><IMG
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MAX-WIDTH: 550px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none"
alt="Start writing"
src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LkrL!,w_270,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fimg%2Femail%2Fpublish-button%402x.png"
width=135 height=40></A></P></DIV></DIV></TD>
<TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><IMG
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px !important; BORDER-RIGHT-WIDTH: 0px !important; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px !important; WIDTH: 1px !important; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px !important; BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px !important; BORDER-BOTTOM-WIDTH: 0px !important; HEIGHT: 1px !important; BORDER-LEFT-WIDTH: 0px !important; PADDING-TOP: 0px !important"
border=0 alt=""
src="https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjUxMDMxMTc1ODU5LjMuOGQ4ZWEyNTVlNTg4MTUyMEBtZy1kMS5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20-IiwidSI6MTU4MDA1ODc0LCJyIjoic3ZldGZyb2dAZ21haWwuY29tIiwiZCI6Im1nLWQxLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbSIsInAiOjE3NzU0MTg1MiwidCI6Im5ld3NsZXR0ZXIiLCJhIjoiZXZlcnlvbmUiLCJzIjozMjM0OTI2LCJjIjoicG9zdCIsImYiOnRydWUsInBvc2l0aW9uIjoiYm90dG9tIiwiaWF0IjoxNzYxOTMzNTQ0LCJleHAiOjE3NjQ1MjU1NDQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0wIiwic3ViIjoiZW8ifQ.HZFJIJqwpEp4z8IWAKFHJ9cJda5lz4EenbEOI5DNtcg"
width=1 height=1><IMG alt=""
src="https://email.mg-d1.substack.com/o/eJxM0EGu4yAQBNDThN1YgGkMC85iYWg8aGyIoMnIt_-Kk8XfVqtLTxU84V7b5Z61E4tuths3QTN0YtHCzjMoxfD0-Vh3LNg8YVw9_bpyo9lf5yFq71OSoFPiEZaktEWjvNUorLUsO8klCD4LsYABO82TiQa9BEAwRoDkD8XP_U8UUx9bJx_-TaGeLPc1NbwJjtpA9paufsSMJaDDF7arlm-coxPLAkoYkJ-Erie6gv_7gUTY2HNsa6jnOUqma8XitwPjt3hsRw6eci3volnOykrNmusvpNTq_lB8fztuVx9brKfPxW25Ug4N93Hcz4w-a46O7RaB4RzMotjLyZ8AAAD__4U0ej4"
width=1 height=1></DIV></DIV></DIV>
<P></P>-- <BR>Вы получили это сообщение, поскольку подписаны на
группу "Региональная платформа по водным вопросам Центральной Азии и др
регионов".<BR></DIV>
<DIV class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><FONT size=2 face=Arial>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">От: <B dir=auto class=gmail_sendername>Svet
Zabelin</B> <SPAN dir=auto><<A
href="mailto:svetfrog@gmail.com">svetfrog@gmail.com</A>></SPAN><BR>Date: сб,
1 нояб. 2025 г. в 20:56<BR>Subject: Fwd: The Rabbit–Duck Illusion in Climate
Messaging: An Example from Wildfire Policy<BR><BR><BR></DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><FONT size=2
face=Arial></FONT> </DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>