*[Enwl-eng] How world can get off oil fast

[ENWL]

+ fossil fuel firms corrupt climate talks ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌No images? Click here

       

      The state hosting next week's UN climate change summit owns an oil company intent on expanding production by more than any other firm. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (Adnoc) chief executive, Sultan Al Jaber, will even preside over the talks, known as COP28, in Dubai.

      But the world needs no new oil according to leading energy experts. In fact, burgeoning technologies and industrial planning could usher in a world without oil sooner than you might think.

      You're reading the Imagine newsletter – a weekly synthesis of academic insight on solutions to climate change, brought to you by The Conversation. I'm Jack Marley, energy and environment editor. This week, we consider how oil could be phased out much faster than many countries and companies are planning for.

      The climate crisis is increasingly stark. A combination of record-high heat-trapping emissions, El Niño (the warm phase of a natural cycle in Earth's climate), dwindling sea ice and other factors have caused a spike in global temperatures this autumn. For two days last week, Earth was more than 2°C hotter than it was before the industrial revolution.

      Instead of halting global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the relatively safe limit scientists have advised, humanity is on track for 3°C by 2100 according to a UN report.

      This "hellish" outcome can be avoided by preventing 22 billion tonnes of CO₂ from entering the atmosphere by 2030 (42% of global emissions). UN secretary general António Guterres says, to achieve this, humanity will need to "tear out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels".

      No technology has rendered more oil obsolete than the electric bike say Muhammad Rizwan Azhar and Waqas Uzair, engineers at Edith Cowan University. 

      Mopeds and bicycles equipped with electric motors are displacing four times as much demand for oil as all the electric cars on Earth. Compare the 20 million electric cars and 1.3 million commercial electric vehicles (buses, delivery vans and trucks) on roads last year with the more than 280 million electric two- or three-wheelers.

      "Their sheer popularity is already cutting demand for oil by a million barrels of oil a day – about 1% of the world’s total oil demand, according to estimates by Bloomberg New Energy Finance," say Azhar and Uzair.

      For the first time ever, the International Energy Agency released a forecast earlier in 2023 showing demand for all fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil) peaking this decade. Although this has yet to be reflected in the plans of oil producers themselves, other industries are already planning for a post-oil world.

      Take the container vessels laden with many of the goods people buy. If the international shipping sector was a country, it would rank within the top ten carbon emitters, just behind Saudi Arabia. These ships overwhelmingly burn oil in their engines. But for how much longer ask Christiaan De Beukelaer and Tristan Smith, climate and transport experts at the University of Melbourne and UCL respectively.

      Talks in July 2023 yielded a new strategy for decarbonising the shipping industry and an aim to cut emissions by at least 20% by 2030. This falls far short of the cuts necessary for limiting warming to 1.5°C. But it does portend an impending drop in oil demand for one of the world's largest consumers.

      "We calculate the strategy will require cuts in emissions per ship of up to 60% by 2030 and as much as 91% by 2040," say De Beukelaer and Smith.

      "This means the days of fossil-fuelled ships are numbered."

      Switching to alternative fuels like methanol, derived from heating plants or by combining hydrogen with CO₂ captured from the air, will take time. The global fleet of 61,000 ships will need new engines, new terminals to refuel at and a network of pipelines and refineries to supply them. 

      In the meantime, James Mason, Alice Larkin and Simon Bullock at the University of Manchester believe the transition from oil can be expedited by installing sails on ships and training satellites to track the most favourable winds for ocean crossings.

      "Not the billowing canvases of centuries past but high-tech systems capable of harnessing renewable wind energy to supplement the propulsion from a ship’s engine," they say.

      "By taking advantage of wind patterns moving across the ocean on routes [with ideal conditions], sails and optimised routing can cut annual emissions by over 30%."

      Rich world must ditch oil fast

      Countries are expected to debate a deadline for phasing out all fossil fuels at COP28. Major oil-producing nations are generally opposed to setting a date for the demise of their climate-heating product.

      Much of the focus at previous summits has been on getting developing countries like India to kick coal. But a paper published in February argued that the onus should be on countries that have grown rich by pumping oil and gas to abandon these fuels faster and buy time for the developing world to decarbonise. Otherwise, staying on track for 1.5°C would oblige poor nations to stop burning coal faster than any energy transition in history.

      Securing any agreement on fossil fuels in Dubai will be tough. At last year's climate talks, COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, oil and gas industry lobbyists outnumbered the combined delegates from the ten most vulnerable countries to climate change.

      Oil companies faced with shrinking markets to sell their fuel may turn to making cheap and difficult-to-recycle plastic instead, inflaming another environmental crisis says Keele University geographer Deirdre McKay. The influence of oil firms in international negotiations to limit plastic pollution appears to be just as pernicious. 

      Fergus Green (UCL) and Harro van Asselt (Stockholm Environment Institute) research the politics of the low-carbon transition and argue that solving the climate crisis will be impossible without a confrontation with fossil fuel producers.

      "Curbing the growth in fossil fuels will not come about through consensus-oriented negotiations among governments that include those corrupted by the fossil fuel industry," they say. 

      "It will require social movements pressuring leaders to legislate a managed phase out of fossil fuels, while ensuring a just transition for affected workers and communities."

      - Jack Marley, Environment commissioning editor


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      The world’s 280 million electric bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

      Electric vehicles get all the press – but it's the smaller unsung two-wheelers cutting oil demand the most. 

      Read more 


       In September we went past 1.5 degrees. In November, we tipped over 2 degrees for the first time. What’s going on?

      Daily global temperature records keep breaking. It's a sign we're on a rapidly warming planet.

      Read more 

       Why the shipping industry’s increased climate ambition spells the end for its fossil fuel use

      Growing ship numbers and reductions in the industry's total emissions add up to big emission cuts per ship – as much as 60% by 2030 and 91% by 2040. The days of fossil-fuelled ships are now numbered.

      Read more 

       Sails and satellite navigation could cut shipping industry’s emissions by up to a third

      Modern mariners can harness trade winds to reduce carbon emissions.

      Read more 

       For developing world to quit coal, rich countries must eliminate oil and gas faster – new study

      Developing countries are expected to quit coal faster than any energy transition in history.

      Read more 

       COP27 flinched on phasing out ‘all fossil fuels’. What’s next for the fight to keep them in the ground?

      Smaller international deals and fossil free zones point a way forward.

      Read more 


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