*[Enwl-eng] Will COP28 kick fossil fuels?
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Thu Dec 7 01:06:29 MSK 2023
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Humanity is burning more fossil fuel right now than it has at any time
during its roughly 300,000-year history. According to the latest estimates,
global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) will increase by 1.1% in 2023 and
reach a record 36.8 billion tonnes.
Earth's temperature is rising as our atmosphere absorbs more and more
of this heat-trapping gas, and it now threatens the conditions which keep
the planet habitable. A new study claims that we are on the verge of
triggering five sudden and irreversible changes in the Earth system,
including the collapse of ice sheets and ocean currents which regulate
Earth's temperature and ecosystems like coral reefs which shelter much of
its biodiversity. Crossing these tipping points would plunge our world into
a dangerous and desperate state.
"The need to cut emissions has never been so urgent," says a research
team led by Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project.
With 90% of all CO₂ emissions originating from coal, oil and gas,
scientists, campaigners and even some delegates at the COP28 climate summit
in Dubai are converging on a solution: ban the burning.
You're reading the Imagine newsletter – a weekly synthesis of academic
insight on solutions to climate change, brought to you by The Conversation.
I'm Jack Marley, energy and environment editor. This week we're discussing
the prospects and implications of a fossil fuel phase-out.
But first, a note about our campaign this month. The Conversation is a
charity, an independent source of facts and expert insight available for
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Considering the vast majority of climate change to date is a
consequence of humans digging up and setting fire to fossil sources of
energy, the solution is fairly simple: stop using combustion to power daily
life.
"The danger of wildfires will only grow as climate change dries out
ecosystems, effectively turning vegetation into potential fuel," says Simon
Dalby, professor emeritus of geography and environmental studies at Wilfrid
Laurier University.
"This same combustion within engines and furnaces, meanwhile, is also
the source of a sizeable percentage of climate changing gases in the
atmosphere. Both involve burning fuel."
Alternatives which run on renewable electricity, such as electric
vehicles and heat pumps, use energy more efficiently and the supply of this
energy isn't buffeted by war or international tensions, Dalby adds.
Yet COP28 president (and oil firm executive) Sultan Al Jaber is
unconvinced. In a live recording in which he discussed climate policy with
Ireland's former president Mary Robinson, Al Jaber said that there is "no
science" indicating a phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary to restrict
heating to the internationally agreed guardrail of 1.5°C.
"There is a wealth of scientific evidence demonstrating that a fossil
fuel phase-out will be essential for reining in the greenhouse gas emissions
driving climate change," says Steve Pye, an associate professor in energy
systems at UCL. "I know because I have published some of it."
A paper Pye wrote in 2021 claimed 90% of the world's coal and 60% of
its oil and gas needed to remain underground to have a 50:50 shot at 1.5°C.
"Crucially, our research also highlighted that the production of oil
and gas needed to start declining immediately (from 2020), at around 3% each
year until 2050," he says.
Since then, sterner estimates have surfaced. These account for the
unproven ability of carbon capture and storage technology to offset
emissions from the continued burning of fossil fuels. They maintain that the
world's supply of coal in 2050 must be 99% smaller than what it was in 2020,
Pye says. For oil and gas: 70% and 84% lower respectively.
But Pye argues that even these figures underestimate the speed at
which oil and gas must be eliminated. He points to research that claims rich
nations must dump these fuels faster to buy time for poor countries to quit
coal.
Regardless, planned fossil fuel production in 2030 is set to be 110%
above the level needed to keep the world on track for 1.5°C.
"The evidence for a fossil fuel phase-out is clear," Pye says. "The
debate should now turn to executing it."
That debate has at least begun at COP28. So far, 26 countries have
declared their support for a complete phase-out of all fossil fuels. Only
one however, Colombia, has any significant oil and gas reserves.
Fossil fuel fallacies
Al Jaber later claimed his comments had been misrepresented, though he
did not retract his previous statement that phasing out coal, oil and gas
risks taking "the world back into caves".
The argument that abandoning fossil fuels to preserve a liveable
climate endangers living standards has been taken up by right-wing
politicians, including UK prime minister Rishi Sunak.
A new analysis suggests the opposite is true. Prolonging the use of
fossil fuels, as some countries are arguing for at the conference, using
technology like carbon capture and storage (CCS) to "abate" emissions, will
be considerably more expensive than rapidly replacing them with renewable
energy.
Unlike solar panels and other renewable technologies, CCS technology
has not become significantly cheaper in the last 40 years the report notes.
Andrea Bacilieri, Richard Black and Rupert Way are economists working
across Oxford University and Imperial College London. They compared two
scenarios for reaching net zero emissions by 2050: one in which fossil fuel
use is virtually ended by mid-century, and another in which power stations,
factories and other industrial units keep burning lots of it but attempt to
capture the emissions using CCS.
In addition to that, a vast array of negative-emissions technologies
would be necessary in a world determined to keep burning the fuels heating
the planet. Think sprawling plantations of energy crops and labyrinths of
carbon-sucking machines.
The team calculated that a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels would
instead save approximately US$30 trillion (US$1 trillion a year) by 2050 and
spare an area of land equivalent to Saudi Arabia.
The record number of delegates representing the fossil fuel industry
at COP28 will be working hard to bury evidence like this. The result may be
a phase-out agreement that protects "abated" fossil fuel use.
In their report, Bacilieri, Black and Way are clear about what that
would mean, saying:
"Using [carbon capture and storage] to facilitate business-as-usual
fossil fuel use, even if feasible, would be highly economically damaging."
- Jack Marley, Environment commissioning editor
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Imagine.
COP28 president is wrong – science clearly shows fossil fuels must go
(and fast)
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Climate tipping points are nearer than you think – our new report
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Coral reefs are already being lost, and four other vital climate
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Sent: Wednesday, December 06, 2023 10:03 PM
Subject: Will COP28 kick fossil fuels?
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